The U.S. Dollar closed trading mixed after trading in a
range most of the day following the release of a poor October jobs data
report.The loss of 190,000 jobs was
somewhat of a surprise. Traders were positioned for a loss of 175,000 jobs. The
unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high to 10.2% and the world didnâ€™t fall
apart.Traders either believe this is
the bottom in unemployment or they have become complacent which could mean huge
volatility is looming.
The Dollar was treated as a safe-haven by some currencies
while others remained focused on their own fundamentals.The action in the outside markets suggests
lower interest rates and a weaker economy. Chicago financial market traders increased
bets that the Fed will keep interest rates low for some time.
This week-end the G-20 meets in Scotland.Members will discuss the value of the Dollar
and Asian currency rates then take a group photo on the steps of some famous
building.Donâ€™t expect anything earth-shattering
at this meeting.
The Euro lost ground to the Dollar today.This may be an indication that traders
believe the U.S.
economy will drag down the Euro Zone.If
the U.S. employment picture
isnâ€™t improving then donâ€™t expect any improvement out of Germany.
The British Pound traded higher.Traders must believe that the Bank of
Englandâ€™s quantitative easing expansion was the right amount necessary to give
the economy a boost.I also think that
traders were relieved that the report showed the U.S. economy was still weak. For
awhile it looked as if the U.K.
economy was going to be the last to recover.
The Dollar lost ground to the Japanese Yen as traders sought
safety in the lower yielding U.S.
currency.Yen traders seem to think that
rates are going to plunge or remain lower for a prolonged period of time.
The USD CAD finished higher after the Canadian Jobs Report
showed an unexpected loss.Traders were
looking for an increase of 10,000 jobs but the report showed a loss of
43,200.The high priced currency during
the third quarter most likely killed business and any chance of a
recovery.Companies were left with
nothing else to do except slash jobs.
The AUD USD closed higher on the news that the Reserve Bank
increased GDP expectations.It also
hinted at future interest rate hikes.Weâ€™ll
see Monday if this was just a reaction to the news or a change in trend back to
the upside.Fridayâ€™s action looked as if
it was short-covering rather than fresh buying.
The groundwork has been laid out by the Fed for another
â€śdemand for higher yieldâ€ť rally but todayâ€™s action seems to reflect trader
concerns that the global economy is still struggling to recover and that
perhaps the safe-haven Dollar is the place to be.A big decision is going to have to be made
soon to either use the excess liquidity to chase yields or put it in a safe
place like the Dollar.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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