equity markets traded sideway-to-better after the government released a weaker
than expected jobs report.The
unemployment rate hit also hit a 26-year high at 10.2%. The bears see this
report as a sign the economy is worsening.The bulls read it as a chance to continue to demand higher risk because
it reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate hike until mid-2010.This means that liquidity will be readily
available for at least the next six months.While this may be true, equity traders failed to pounce on the chance to
drive the markets higher.This is an
indication that stocks may be overvalued and ready to roll-over.
Treasury futures moved up as yields fellExpectations are for interest rates to remain
low well into 2010 as Chicago financial market traders reduced their bets
calling for an interest rate hike around April 2010.Treasury Bonds and Notes seem to have
survived the recent attempt at a sell-off.This could mean a sustained rally next week even though the Treasury
will auction more debt.
The U.S. Dollar closed trading mixed after trading in a
range most of the day following the release of a poor October jobs data
report.The loss of 190,000 jobs was
somewhat of a surprise. Traders were positioned for a loss of 175,000 jobs. The
unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high to 10.2% and the world didnâ€™t fall
apart.Traders either believe this is
the bottom in unemployment or they have become complacent which could mean huge
volatility is looming.
The Dollar was treated as a safe-haven by some currencies
while others remained focused on their own fundamentals.The action in the outside markets suggests
lower interest rates and a weaker economy. Chicago financial market traders increased
bets that the Fed will keep interest rates low for some time.
December Gold traded up to 1101.90 but failed to close over
$1000.00.Traders seem to be cautious
about getting aggressively long at current price levels. Although interest
rates are expected to remain low, the Dollar did not weaken as much as
expected.This action kept the gold in a
tight trading range throughout the day.A failure at $1100.00 again could trigger a sell-off back to $1072.00.
December Crude Oil broke hard after the unemployment news
was released.There was no close under
$77.00, but this market did come close to reversing the week to down.The market was also able to withstand an
aggressive attempt to break the bottom at $76.55.This move wouldâ€™ve changed the main trend
down.Bullish speculators may finally be
throwing in the towel on the long side after the release of the bearish U.S. jobs
report.More jobs lost mean fewer
employees driving to work.Lower
gasoline demand will take down the price of crude oil.Mixed equities and a higher Dollar are also
contributing to the downside pressure.A
stronger Dollar and weaker equities could send this market sharply lower next
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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