Sunday November 8, 2009 - 22:30:37 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report
Morning Report Monday 9 November 2009
News and views
The US payrolls report was a mixed bag, the headline employment change slightly beating consensus when revisions were included, but the rise in the unemployment rate and the detail (e.g. less hours worked) less impressive. The S&P500's price action was initially confused, spiking in both directions during the first two hours of trading, but ultimately ended 0.3% higher. A weak consumer credit report near the session's end only slightly checked the rise. The rising optimism was reflected in the record volume traded in the VIX index, as punters flocked to bet on further falls in risk aversion. The negative aspects of the payrolls report were more noticeable in commodity markets, oil falling 2.8%, and safe-haven gold rising 0.4% to a new high of 1101. The data also supported the Fed's dovish stance and helped 2yr treasuries rally 5bp, and the curve steepen slightly since Sydney's close.
EUR closed 30 pips lower after a whippy session. USD/JPY fell one yen to 89.60. USD/CAD rallied from a 1.0609 session low to 1.0781 after a disappointing Canadian payrolls report.
AUD firmed from 0.9140 to 0.9200 during London. The RBA's Battelino gave a bullish speech in Perth on Friday night.
NZD also firmed from 0.7220 to 0.7280, and has been boosted this morning to over 0.7300 on the breaking news that Fonterra has upgraded its season forecast for the milk powder farmer payout from $5.10 to $6.05/kg, a much larger increase than was expected, and worth an additional $1.3 billion to the economy.
US non-farm payrolls fall 190k in Oct. This would have been the smallest decline since August last year were it not for a sharp favourable 47k revision to August 2009, to a -154k job loss (which incidentally is now just a whisker away from Westpac's forecast at the time for a -150k August payrolls decline). September also saw a positive revision so the level of October payrolls was actually just 99k below what was reported a month ago. Private payrolls have now posted three consecutive losses of less than -200k. In contrast, the separate household survey found 589k job losses last month, enough to push the jobless rate up nearly 0.4 pts to 10.2%. So overall, there are plenty of mixed signals about the US labour market. The slower payrolls declines of late are encouraging, but accelerating joblessness will tend to constrain spending and broader economic recovery.
US wholesale inventories fell 0.9% in Sep. The slower pace of wholesale inventory decline in September is consistent with the positive contribution from inventories to Q3 GDP growth.
German factory orders rose 0.9% in September, comprising a 2.3% fall in the domestic component and a 3.7% jump in foreign orders. Auto orders, up 15.3% in August, fell 3.6% in September.
UK producer prices were higher across the board in October. Input prices rose 2.6%, output prices were up 0.2%, and core output prices up 0.3% (that last for a 2.0% yr annual pace of gain). The lesser rises in output prices suggest manufacturers are absorbing higher costs rather than passing them on.
Canadian jobless rate jumps to 8.6% in Oct. Solid back to back gains in Canadian employment in August and September were largely reversed in October when employment fell 43k, comprising a 60k drop in part-time workers and a 17k rise in full-timers. This leaves a modest downtrend of 8k per month in place since mid-year, which is actually more in tune with the subdued economic growth pace (around 1-2% annualised) that we expect to be reported for Q3 at the end of this month, than the apparently strong jobs growth of Aug-Sep was.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today: AUD today is again a 'buy-on-dips' proposition, as is NZD, supported by the Fonterra news today.
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