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Monday November 9, 2009 - 10:48:39 GMT
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In The News:
Traders await tomorrows release of the Economic Sentiment report by The
German Zentrum fÃ¼r EuropÃ¤ische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW).
The report determines the sentiment of German institutional investors over the past month.
The ZEW report, which is concluded from survey of about 350 German
institutional investors and analysts, is considered a leading indicator
of business conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's report to indicate a slight drop to 55.00 from lasts month's measure of 56.00
Finally, the Euro broke short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance level at
1.4897 and reached the previous known resistance 1.4942 which is
October 22nd low. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, since we
see the first important resistance above it is at 1.5014. Then there is
nothing separating the Euro from this year's high 1.5061, and may be
reach the important resistance 1.5082. The most important support for
the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd
bottoms, which is 1.4880. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a
correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2%
for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at
1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for
the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a
correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.
â€¢ 1.4880: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
â€¢ 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
â€¢ 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.
â€¢ 1.4942: Oct 22nd low.
â€¢ 1.5014: previous resistance.
â€¢ 1.5082: previous resistance.
The Pound broke the resistance 1.6636, and reached the first target
1.6690 successfully, and came close to the second 1.6739 this morning
(the high until the moment is 1.6739). This resistance, that represents
September 11th high, will be the most important for today. If price
fail to break it, it will be heading towards a test of the short-term
support at 1.6661, and if this support is broken, we believe the price
will be in a correction for the whole rise from 1.6259. Such a
correction will target Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.6552 (at least), and could
reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.6496. on the other hand, if the price manage
to break 1.6739, this rise will continue, and reach areas above 1.68,
where there is the important resistance 1.6830 that we believe to be
the minimum target for breaking 1.6739. And may be later, we will see a
test of the important resistance from August 1.6910. All eyes on 1.6739.
â€¢ 1.6661: short-term resistance.
â€¢ 1.6552: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
â€¢ 1.6496: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
â€¢ 1.6739: Sep 11th high.
â€¢ 1.6830: Aug 7th high.
â€¢ 1.6910: a previous resistance from August.
Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.41 and reached our first target
suggested for this break at 89.61 with an amazing accuracy (Friday's
low was 89.60). And with the two-time stop at the descending trendline
on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance during the Asian session,
the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The
falling trendline is now at 90.55, and short-term Fibonacci 61.8%
resistance is at 90.37, making this area the most important for the
short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More
confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 90.05, which
will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise
happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.
â€¢ 90.05: short-term support.
â€¢ 89.40: previous support.
â€¢ 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
â€¢ 90.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€¢ 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
â€¢ 91.30: Nov 4th high.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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