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Monday November 9, 2009 - 10:48:39 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 9, 2009

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In The News:

Traders await tomorrows release of the Economic Sentiment report by The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW).
The report determines the sentiment of German institutional investors over the past month.

The ZEW report, which is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts, is considered a leading indicator of business conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Analysts expect tomorrow's report to indicate a slight drop to 55.00 from lasts month's measure of 56.00

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Euro/Dollar

Finally, the Euro broke short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance level at 1.4897 and reached the previous known resistance 1.4942 which is October 22nd low. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, since we see the first important resistance above it is at 1.5014. Then there is nothing separating the Euro from this year's high 1.5061, and may be reach the important resistance 1.5082. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is 1.4880. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.

Support:
• 1.4880: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
• 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.4942: Oct 22nd low.
• 1.5014: previous resistance.
• 1.5082: previous resistance.

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GBP/USD

The Pound broke the resistance 1.6636, and reached the first target 1.6690 successfully, and came close to the second 1.6739 this morning (the high until the moment is 1.6739). This resistance, that represents September 11th high, will be the most important for today. If price fail to break it, it will be heading towards a test of the short-term support at 1.6661, and if this support is broken, we believe the price will be in a correction for the whole rise from 1.6259. Such a correction will target Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.6552 (at least), and could reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.6496. on the other hand, if the price manage to break 1.6739, this rise will continue, and reach areas above 1.68, where there is the important resistance 1.6830 that we believe to be the minimum target for breaking 1.6739. And may be later, we will see a test of the important resistance from August 1.6910. All eyes on 1.6739.

Support:
• 1.6661: short-term resistance.
• 1.6552: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 1.6496: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.

Resistance:
• 1.6739: Sep 11th high.
• 1.6830: Aug 7th high.
• 1.6910: a previous resistance from August.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.41 and reached our first target suggested for this break at 89.61 with an amazing accuracy (Friday's low was 89.60). And with the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance during the Asian session, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at 90.55, and short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 90.05, which will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.

Support:
• 90.05: short-term support.
• 89.40: previous support.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.

Resistance:
• 90.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.30: Nov 4th high.


Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros.com

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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