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Tuesday November 10, 2009 - 06:24:36 GMT
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Tumbling Dollar Sends Equities Markets Sharply Higher

Demand for higher risk assets helped to trigger a strong rally in U.S. stock markets.  The December E-mini Dow contract took out the October high at 10068 and made a new high for the year. The December E-mini NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed within striking distance of their highs for the year. The action by the Fed last week combined with bearish unemployment report is expected to keep pressure on interest rates which is helping investors build confidence in the long side of the market again. News that the G-20 finance ministers failed to back the Dollar at its meeting over the week-end, fueled most of the rally today. 

 

The U.S. Dollar Index reached a 15 month low on Monday following a massive sell-off against most major currencies.  The Dollar has gone down since November 3 when it topped at a 50% price at 77.50.  The 2008 bottoms at 73.79 and 73.67 are the next downside targets.

 

The Greenback was trounced on Monday after the G-20 finance ministers failed to discuss the value of the Dollar at their week-end meeting, thereby, effectively offering no support.  In addition, they decided to keep stimulus measures in place until the global economy can show sustained gains.

 

The real selling pressure hit the Dollar after an IMF report issued at the meeting said, the Dollar has moved closer to “medium-term equilibrium” but “still remains on the strong side.”  This statement was a shot at the Dollar being overvalued versus the Asian currencies particularly the Chinese Yuan.  Aggressive traders seized this moment as an opportunity to increase selling pressure on the Dollar overnight and throughout the New York trading session.

 

The fact that the G-20 Finance Ministers failed to talk up the U.S. currency came a few days after the Federal Reserve voted to leave interest rates at historically low levels, and it was reported the U.S. lost more jobs while boosting the jobless rate to a 26-year high. All of this added up to a perfect storm versus the Dollar.  The Fed decision itself added up to a free ride for the Dollar bears until the Fed meets in December.  With interest rates at historically low levels and plenty of liquidity available, traders should continue to treat the Dollar as the world’s funding currency throughout the foreseeable future. 

 

December Gold rallied to a new all-time high because of the weaker Dollar.  Now that this market has pierced the $1100 barrier with conviction, look for this price to become short-term support. December Silver closed up but is still struggling to take out the October top at 18.17.  This could be because traders are using silver as a hedge against gold.  December Copper also traded firm but settled below its October top at 3.069.

 

December Crude Oil took back all of last Friday’s break with a strong move to the upside.  Higher equities, a weaker Dollar and increased speculation are providing the major support.  Traders are speculating that the Dollar will continue to erode in value.  In addition, news that a hurricane is heading toward a major refining area in the Gulf of Mexico near Louisiana is also helping to boost unleaded gasoline futures.

 

Treasury futures closed slightly better. Early in the session December Treasury Bonds and December Treasury Notes traded lower as traders pulled money from fixed income instruments and reinvested in the stock market.  Later in the day, the inability to break the Treasuries lower led to some mild short-covering.  Technically, the December T-Bonds are holding inside of a retracement zone at 118’24 to 117’18. 

 

December Corn and December Wheat rallied sharply higher on increased speculation that a weaker Dollar will lead to increased demand for U.S. grain.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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