Wednesday November 11, 2009 - 03:48:22 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Nov-2009 - 0339 GMT
The equities fell a bit on profit booking yesterday. The Dow and the Nasdaq ended flat. There's Resistance on Dow near 10500 which can keep it subdued for the rest of the week. In the US, the Senate has proposed a bill to transfer the supervisory powers of FED to three new federal agencies.
The Asian indices are also trading flat today. The Nikkei (9892.29) is up 0.22% and the Shanghai (3173.49) is down 0.16%. The Sensex (16440.56) had seen some profit taking yesterday after sharp rise over the last few days.
Crude (79.12) has fallen from yesterday's high of 80.51 and is now trading just above 79, as the Tropical Storm Ida weakend and the operations in the Gulf Coast started to restore. As seen from the daily chart, Crude is moving sideways for a couple of weeks and we expect it to continue to trade sideways in the range of 77-81.50 for some time. The US Crude inventory data will be released tomorrow instead of today due to Veteran's day holiday. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1107.40) is continuing to trade higher and is keeping up the bullish sentiment intact. Immediate Resistance is seen at 1110, a break above which might see a rise towards 1150-1200 in the coming days/weeks. On the downside Support is seen at 1085. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Same story today. Most currencies remain strong but have not broken new ground. Importantly, however, they have recovered from a small dip yesterday. The Euro (1.4992) seems to have built Support in the 1.4950-40 region and might press higher today, to test the Oct-09 high near 1.5060. The Aussie has maintained its strength through yesterday and may try to test/ break the previous high near 0.9335. The more volatile Pound (1.6737) had seen a sharper dip to almost 1.66 yesterday, but has recovered well from there and may move higher today. The same story (obviously) is there in Dollar-Swiss also, which has dipped again to 1.0070 after having seen a weak bounce to 1.0110 yesterday.
Dollar-Yen (89.60) has also fallen from yesterday's high near 90.20. It now faces a crucial Support at 89.35. Should that break, we might see a fall towards 88.50. The Euro-Yen Cross (134.30) has been relatively quiet over the last couple of days. Some movement, possibly to the upside might be seen today.
The Asians are strong again today after having weakened a bit yesterday. The Sing Dollar trades near 1.3872, but substantial gains might not come through very easily in the near term, as there may be Support building up near 1.38. USD-KRW trades near 1158.20. It is to be seen whether the previous low at 1149 can be broken or not. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 46.50 yesterday. NDFs are a little higher near 46.55-60.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.27% and the US yields have not changed much. The 10Y yields continues to hover near 3.48% and the the 2Y yields near 0.82%. Days ahead may see yields continuing to consolidate near current levels with an upward bias.
The FDIC has noted that the big banks aren't lending enough and are instead channeling funds towards "carry trades". This could be a concern for the US financial industry in particular and the US economy in general as unproductive lending could create asset bubbles.
UK Trade Balance
...Actual $ -7.2 Bln...Previous $ -6.1 Bln
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