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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Perceived USD "benign neglect "further aids global risk appetite; Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz; BOE quarterly inflation report...

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 5:57:28 AM

 European Market Update: Perceived USD "benign neglect "further aids global risk appetite; Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz; BOE quarterly inflation report: Range of views in MPC over medium term prospects

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (CZ) Czech Sept Final Industrial Output y/y -11.9% v -11.9%; Construction Output Y/Y: 3.6% v 0.6% prior
- (HU) Hungary Oct Consumer Prices M/M 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y 4.7% v 4.8%e
- (TU) Turkish Oct Capacity Utilization: 71.8% v 69.5%e
- (NV) Netherlands Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -7.6 v -8.2%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -21.0 v -21.8% prior
- (SW) Sweden Oct AMV Unemployment Rate 5.4% v 5.3%e
- (CZ) Czech Sept Current Account (CZK): -3.7B v -4.5Be
- (UK) Oct Claimant Count Rate: 5.1% v 5.1e; Jobless Claims Change: 12.9K v 20.0Ke
- (UK) Sept Avg Earnings incl bonus 3M/y/y 1.2% v 1.4%e; Ex bonus 3M/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (UK) Sept Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost 3M/Y: 3.2% v 3.7% prior
- (GE) German IFO: Euro-Zone Q4 economic sentiment: Q/Q 74.6 v 63.6 prior; Expectations Q/Q: 107.0 v 93.0 prior
- (UK) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report: Sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and £200B QE measures. CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push
CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period.

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities news overnight: European equity markets have seen strong buying since the open of trade. Positive sentiment rolled out of the Asian session following Chinese data that has continued to support a recovery story.
China's Oct commodity output figures showed continued y/y builds, sharply rallying the basic resource sector both in Asia and Europe. Equity strength took further bids on the back of solid earnings reported from France's third largest bank Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] after the close on Tuesday and German utility E.on [EOAN.GE] and Italian banking group Unicredit [UCG.IT] in the Euro premarket. Ahead of UK employment data at 4:30EST, equities took a further leg up, this move was supported by UK data that showed the lowest build in jobless claims since April 2008. Leading sectors on the EuroStoxx50 included Financials, Utilities and Basic Resource names. Turnover volumes have been mixed, the CAC40 is printing well ahead of its averages due to interest in Credit Agricole and Axa, while the DAX and FTSE are trading off their moving averages.

-In individual equities: Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Reports Q3 net €290M v €145Me, Rev €4.8B v €4.6Be; names Jean-Paul Chifflet new CEO. || E.on [EOAN.GE] Reports 9-month EBIT €7.7B v €7.6Be, Q3 Rev €16.7B v €17.9Be; Guides 2009 Adjusted Net Profit down 3-5% y/y v prior down 5-10% y/y. || Unicredit [UCG.IT] Reports Q3 Net €394M v €360Me, Rev €6.7B v €6.7Be. || National Express [NEX.UK] Confirms 7 for 3 rights issue to raise £360M (69% of market cap). || Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £307M v £302Me, Rev £11.2B v £10.3MBe; LFL +5.7%. || Holcim [HOLN.SZ] Reports Q3 Net CHF673M v CHF490Me, Rev CHF5.7B v CHF5.7Be. |
- Speakers: China PBoC: again reaffirmed its pledge to maintain "moderately loose" monetary policy as it noted that its external demand remained weak and questioned the fiscal stimulus sustainability as a potential risk to global economic recovery. The central bank noted that inflationary expectations were rising with commodity prices. The PBoC stated that its liquidity management was becoming increasingly difficult but would maintain reasonable growth in credit. It would improve Yuan exchange rate mechanism based on capital flows and major currency changes. It viewed the Chinese economy as stable and added that it forecasted a positive role of exports in 2010. || India Commerce Sec Khullar commented that he expected India's exports to grow and turn positive on a annual basis by January || Australian Treasurer Swan commented that Western consumption would not be driving global GDP || Indian PM Econ Advisor noted that some monetary stimulus might have to be withdrawn by its central bank if inflation was higher by end 2009 with RBI taking steps in early 2010 || Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) draft statement noted that flexible exchange rates and interest rates were critical. The statement noted that large external deficits nations to pledge policies to support private savings while members with surpluses pledged to strengthen domestic consumption || German IFO noted that it was clear the USD and GBP were undervalued versus Euro but did not expect the USD to rise versus Euro over the next six months. The IFO expected increasing capital market rates and saw key lending rates rising over the next six months. The IFO duly noted that expectations were clearly up in
Germany, Italy and Netherlands regions. || U.K. Treasury announced that the pre-budget report will be released on December 9th || Moody's cuts Iceland's sovereign ratings by two notches to "Baa3" (lowest of Medium term grade) || UK quarterly inflation report: The BOE sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and £200B QE measures. CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period. The BOE reiterated that the decline in the GBP to aid the UK trade position. BOE acknowledged there was "a range of views" in the MPC over the medium-term inflation prospects.

- In Currencies: USD was a touch softer against the European and commodity related currencies as the risk appetite theme remained in play after a slew of Chinese data released during the Asian session a rebound in Japan machinery orders. Fed's Fisher benign neglect of the USD helped spot gold to test fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz. The GBP fell sharply after the BOE quarterly inflation report. The BOE sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and £200B QE measures. The BOE did note that
CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period. The BOE also reiterated that a weaker GBP would aid to solve its imbalances. GBP/USD slumped a big figure to test 1.6650 ahead of the NY morning. EUR/GBP firmer by 70 pips to test 0.9030 area.

- In Energy/commodities: Spot gold hits fresh all-time high aided by rising risk appetite and alleged benign neglect by US officials on the dollar outlook

- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds are broadly weaker thanks to elevated risk appetite this morning in the European session. Yield curves subject to a bout of bear steepening on both sides of the channel whilst peripherals are firmer against the core. Borrowing from the ECB's marginal lending facility jumped markedly to €3.4B overnight following yesterday's draining operation and there was some surprise at the allotment at its 3 and 6 month tenders (€10.8B and €782M respectively) Germany sold just under €5B in new 10y Bunds with a weaker than average bid-to-cover of 1.4.
Portugal sold €1B in 2014s with a healthy bid-to-cover of 3.4x. Gilts managed to recover lost ground and move into positive territory across the curve after the BoE's quarterly inflation report, which on close inspection appears to be more dovish than initial appearances.


*** NOTES ***
- Slew of Chinese data overnight: Retail Sales +16.2% v 15.7%e; Industrial Production: +16.1% v 15.5%e; New loans CNY253B v CNY370Be for 1-year lows
- Fed's Fisher: Watching "carry trade" in USD for disorderly influence and saw "rather orderly depreciation" of dollar now
- Fed hawk Lacker: no hurry to start to remove stimulus yet, let alone start to hike rates
- US Tsy Geithner: Strong dollar 'very important' for US
- US bond markets closed for Veterans Day observance
- APEC finance ministers will call for flexible interest and exchange rates - draft statement

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (EU) ECB's Weber to speak
- 13:30 (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment: -12.0% expected versus -14.1% prior
- 13:30 (MX) Mexico Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -6.2% expected versus -7.3% prior

 

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