Forex Blog - European Market Update: Perceived USD "benign neglect "further aids global risk appetite; Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz; BOE quarterly inflation report...
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
European Market Update: Perceived USD "benign neglect "further aids global risk appetite; Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz; BOE quarterly inflation report: Range of views in MPC over medium term prospects
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (CZ) Czech Sept Final Industrial Output y/y -11.9% v -11.9%; Construction Output Y/Y: 3.6% v 0.6% prior - (HU) Hungary Oct Consumer Prices M/M 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y 4.7% v 4.8%e - (TU) Turkish Oct Capacity Utilization: 71.8% v 69.5%e - (NV) Netherlands Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -7.6 v -8.2%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -21.0 v -21.8% prior - (SW) Sweden Oct AMV Unemployment Rate 5.4% v 5.3%e - (CZ) Czech Sept Current Account (CZK): -3.7B v -4.5Be - (UK) Oct Claimant Count Rate: 5.1% v 5.1e; Jobless Claims Change: 12.9K v 20.0Ke - (UK) Sept Avg Earnings incl bonus 3M/y/y 1.2% v 1.4%e; Ex bonus 3M/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e - (UK) Sept Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost 3M/Y: 3.2% v 3.7% prior - (GE) German IFO: Euro-Zone Q4 economic sentiment: Q/Q 74.6 v 63.6 prior; Expectations Q/Q: 107.0 v 93.0 prior - (UK) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report: Sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and Â£200B QE measures. CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period.
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - In equities news overnight: European equity markets have seen strong buying since the open of trade. Positive sentiment rolled out of the Asian session following Chinese data that has continued to support a recovery story. China's Oct commodity output figures showed continued y/y builds, sharply rallying the basic resource sector both in Asia and Europe. Equity strength took further bids on the back of solid earnings reported from France's third largest bank Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] after the close on Tuesday and German utility E.on [EOAN.GE] and Italian banking group Unicredit [UCG.IT] in the Euro premarket. Ahead of UK employment data at 4:30EST, equities took a further leg up, this move was supported by UK data that showed the lowest build in jobless claims since April 2008. Leading sectors on the EuroStoxx50 included Financials, Utilities and Basic Resource names. Turnover volumes have been mixed, the CAC40 is printing well ahead of its averages due to interest in Credit Agricole and Axa, while the DAX and FTSE are trading off their moving averages.
-In individual equities: Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Reports Q3 net â‚¬290M v â‚¬145Me, Rev â‚¬4.8B v â‚¬4.6Be; names Jean-Paul Chifflet new CEO. || E.on [EOAN.GE] Reports 9-month EBIT â‚¬7.7B v â‚¬7.6Be, Q3 Rev â‚¬16.7B v â‚¬17.9Be; Guides 2009 Adjusted Net Profit down 3-5% y/y v prior down 5-10% y/y. || Unicredit [UCG.IT] Reports Q3 Net â‚¬394M v â‚¬360Me, Rev â‚¬6.7B v â‚¬6.7Be. || National Express [NEX.UK] Confirms 7 for 3 rights issue to raise Â£360M (69% of market cap). || Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] Reports H1 Pretax Â£307M v Â£302Me, Rev Â£11.2B v Â£10.3MBe; LFL +5.7%. || Holcim [HOLN.SZ] Reports Q3 Net CHF673M v CHF490Me, Rev CHF5.7B v CHF5.7Be. | - Speakers: China PBoC: again reaffirmed its pledge to maintain "moderately loose" monetary policy as it noted that its external demand remained weak and questioned the fiscal stimulus sustainability as a potential risk to global economic recovery. The central bank noted that inflationary expectations were rising with commodity prices. The PBoC stated that its liquidity management was becoming increasingly difficult but would maintain reasonable growth in credit. It would improve Yuan exchange rate mechanism based on capital flows and major currency changes. It viewed the Chinese economy as stable and added that it forecasted a positive role of exports in 2010. || India Commerce Sec Khullar commented that he expected India's exports to grow and turn positive on a annual basis by January || Australian Treasurer Swan commented that Western consumption would not be driving global GDP || Indian PM Econ Advisor noted that some monetary stimulus might have to be withdrawn by its central bank if inflation was higher by end 2009 with RBI taking steps in early 2010 || Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) draft statement noted that flexible exchange rates and interest rates were critical. The statement noted that large external deficits nations to pledge policies to support private savings while members with surpluses pledged to strengthen domestic consumption || German IFO noted that it was clear the USD and GBP were undervalued versus Euro but did not expect the USD to rise versus Euro over the next six months. The IFO expected increasing capital market rates and saw key lending rates rising over the next six months. The IFO duly noted that expectations were clearly up in Germany, Italy and Netherlands regions. || U.K. Treasury announced that the pre-budget report will be released on December 9th || Moody's cuts Iceland's sovereign ratings by two notches to "Baa3" (lowest of Medium term grade) || UK quarterly inflation report: The BOE sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and Â£200B QE measures. CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period. The BOE reiterated that the decline in the GBP to aid the UK trade position. BOE acknowledged there was "a range of views" in the MPC over the medium-term inflation prospects.
- In Currencies: USD was a touch softer against the European and commodity related currencies as the risk appetite theme remained in play after a slew of Chinese data released during the Asian session a rebound in Japan machinery orders. Fed's Fisher benign neglect of the USD helped spot gold to test fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz. The GBP fell sharply after the BOE quarterly inflation report. The BOE sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and Â£200B QE measures. The BOE did note that CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period. The BOE also reiterated that a weaker GBP would aid to solve its imbalances. GBP/USD slumped a big figure to test 1.6650 ahead of the NY morning. EUR/GBP firmer by 70 pips to test 0.9030 area.
- In Energy/commodities: Spot gold hits fresh all-time high aided by rising risk appetite and alleged benign neglect by US officials on the dollar outlook
- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds are broadly weaker thanks to elevated risk appetite this morning in the European session. Yield curves subject to a bout of bear steepening on both sides of the channel whilst peripherals are firmer against the core. Borrowing from the ECB's marginal lending facility jumped markedly to â‚¬3.4B overnight following yesterday's draining operation and there was some surprise at the allotment at its 3 and 6 month tenders (â‚¬10.8B and â‚¬782M respectively) Germany sold just under â‚¬5B in new 10y Bunds with a weaker than average bid-to-cover of 1.4. Portugal sold â‚¬1B in 2014s with a healthy bid-to-cover of 3.4x. Gilts managed to recover lost ground and move into positive territory across the curve after the BoE's quarterly inflation report, which on close inspection appears to be more dovish than initial appearances.
*** NOTES *** - Slew of Chinese data overnight: Retail Sales +16.2% v 15.7%e; Industrial Production: +16.1% v 15.5%e; New loans CNY253B v CNY370Be for 1-year lows - Fed's Fisher: Watching "carry trade" in USD for disorderly influence and saw "rather orderly depreciation" of dollar now - Fed hawk Lacker: no hurry to start to remove stimulus yet, let alone start to hike rates - US Tsy Geithner: Strong dollar 'very important' for US - US bond markets closed for Veterans Day observance - APEC finance ministers will call for flexible interest and exchange rates - draft statement
***Looking Ahead*** - 12:00 (EU) ECB's Weber to speak - 13:30 (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment: -12.0% expected versus -14.1% prior - 13:30 (MX) Mexico Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -6.2% expected versus -7.3% prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.