U.S. Dollar Hits 15-Month Low on Prospect of Lower Interest Rates
The U.S. Dollar hit a 15-month low against a basket of
currencies last night on the prospect the Fed will keep interest rates at low
levels for a prolonged period of time.This assumption is based on last weekâ€™s Fed FOMC statement and recent
comments from a Fed official suggesting that unemployment is the major
concern.This serves as a hint that the
Fed is not likely to begin hiking rates until the U.S. jobs issue begins to post a
recovery. The Dollar is trading weaker on this news versus all major currencies
except the Japanese Yen and British Pound.
Excessive volatility hit the GBP USD early this morning
following the release of the Bank of Englandâ€™s forecast for economic growth and
inflation.In the report, the BoE warned
that the U.K.â€™s
economic recovery was just beginning and continuing strength during the
recovery period remains â€śhighly uncertainâ€ť.
In other news, China announced a major departure
in how it determines the value of its currency the Yuan.In a statement on Wednesday, China said it
will consider using the valuations of major currencies in guiding the price of
the Yuan.This statement suggests that China will
begin to move away from using the Dollar as a peg.This practice has been followed since the
middle of 2008.
Chinaâ€™s factory growth output soared to a 19th-month high in
October.This was a sign that financial
stimulus helped improve the domestic economy.A drop in imports and exports indicated that the economy is still
suffering from the global economic recession.This drop in imports and exports may have a major effect on its trading
partners but most of all on Australia
and New Zealand.This news is contributing to the weakness in
the AUD USD this morning.
Higher equity, crude oil and gold prices are helping
to pressure the USD CAD.The charts
indicate that the first and second downside objectives were reached last night
at 1.0522 and 1.0446.Further weakness
should take this market to uptrending Gann angle support at 1.0395.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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