User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 11, 2009 - 14:30:35 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

China: Smooth-talking their way to prosperity

Key News
The strength of the New Zealand dollar is not sustainable but at current levels may hinder a further narrowing of the current account deficit and so economic recovery, the central bank said on Wednesday. (Reuters)
Geithner Says Strong Dollar ‘Very Important’ to U.S. (Bloomberg) Editor’s Note: Yawn …
King Says BOE Still Has `Open Mind' on Bond Purchases, Won't End Stimulus (Bloomberg)
Gold - a six thousand year-old bubble (Financial Times)

Quotable  
“In a world with multiple fiat moneys, the zero value of money equilibrium lurks for each of the fiat currencies, including gold. Admittedly, as regards gold, so far so good. Gold has positive value. It has had positive value for nigh-on 6000 years. That must make it the longest-lasting bubble in human history.
 
“I don’t want to argue with a 6000-year old bubble. It may well be good for another 6000 years. Its value may go from $1,100 per fine ounce to $1,500 or $5,000 for all I know. But I would not invest more than a sliver of my wealth into something without intrinsic value, something whose positive value is based on nothing more than a set of self-confirming beliefs.” 
       Willem Buiter

And let me include two amusing comments from anonymous readers in reaction to Mr. Buiter’s article from which I pulled the above quote:
 
1) Not a bad article, but you miss a very important point that ties all your article together--and refutes your argument.
 
The reason that the paper money is not at the fundamental equilibrium of zero value is simply because of government decree. Because the governments have legal tender laws, because they will accept only their currencies as taxes, and because they care and do a lot to keep their currency alive, this prevents the currency from going to the zero fundamental value its worthless paper deserves. So the natural value of worthless paper is zero, unless someone puts a gun to your head and tells you otherwise.
 
Gold is the opposite: its natural value is high, because it will always have some worth, unless someone puts a gun to your head and tells you otherwise. Gold can never go to the zero value of monetary equilibrium because whatever happens in the world, it will have value. At the very least, it's a pretty handy metal to have around. It looks great, it doesn't rust, doesn't spoil, and can't evaporate. You could, at the very least, make some real cool chairs, cutlery, or electronic devices with it. This means it will always have some value. And since everyone knows it will always have some value, then the fundamental equilibrium price will never hit zero. 
 
And, as you mention, since it cannot be printed and can only be produced at a very high cost, it happens to be an excellent store of value. So everyone wants it not just because you can make nice furniture, but because you can store your value in it very reliably. This raises its price further.
 
And this is exactly why it is a 6,000-year bubble that has busted countless fiat and paper moneys through history and remains triumphant. And this is why it will soon defeat all the current crop of fiat paper money around. 
 
Maybe you shouldn't put all your money in gold, but enough people around the world are putting enough money in it that its price will continue to rise.
 
And ...
 
2) Usually you are accurate. In this article I think you lost your mind. Gold is one thing Benny Boy and the rest of the idiot CB's can't counterfeit. They can't turn lead into gold. Gold is a currency, you can take it to the currency window at the bank and convert it into funny money.
 
Gold will reflect a $4,000.00 price per troy ounce for every 1 trillion they create visa-vi Q-Easing. 
 
And for the record, I hate gold, I'm not a gold bug, but I have faith in the 4 G's: God, Gold, Guns and the Governments will screw it up making it better.
 
FX Trading – Smooth-Talkers in the Far-East
 
For several years now most analysts have understood the way in which China reports their economic data. China says what its people, and often times the rest of the world, need to hear.
 
It can be argued, though, that a lot of the numbers spewed out in China are manipulated for the better, for the sake of social contentment. An older, third-party article on this topic can be found here.
 
But even when we’re talking about less concrete items, general comments on the action being taken to restore China’s growth, it seems as though officials are just trying to schmooze over whoever is listening.

For example, official comments warning of potential over-investment ask lenders to lend less freely so the economy will not overheat. But at the same time government makes it clear that it will maintain accommodative policy.
 
I’m pretty sure there’s a fairly popular Chinese character for the word “balance.”
 
Okay, okay, Chinese officials are in no way the only smooth-talkers trying to keep their economy stable by taking the “feel good” approach. I suppose we just notice it more with China because of the ability for China-related news to move markets. Everyone watches China closely now.
 
Recently, most every new piece of data coming out of China have given reporters and analysts reason to affirm the worst is definitely behind China and the country is returning to the level of growth it’s capable of producing.
 
The latest, from earlier today ...
 
BEIJING, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Chinese factory output growth surged to a 19-month high in October, showing the world's third-largest economy has firmly put the worst of the global financial crisis behind it.
 
To the reporter’s credit, there was mention of “a dip in the pace of investment and loan growth” and the fact that “exports and imports also undershot market forecasts, falling from year-earlier levels for the 12th month in a row.”
 
Also from that article:
 
Factory output is a crucial gauge because industry generates about 43 percent of Chinese gross domestic product
 
Right. And that’s all well and good for Chinese industry – they’re doing what they “need” to do to keep the lights on.
 
But we revert to our ongoing concerns. I asked in Monday’s Currency Currents:
 
How many people are currently wondering whether or not policies being implemented around the globe are just rebuilding another house of cards on the same faulty foundation that allowed the global financial structure to come crashing down in the first place?
 
I have a similar question today – how sustainable is China’s resurgence in industry and export-oriented growth when the number one customer is still holding back and disposable incomes are falling?

I turn to Professor Michael Pettis for a very succinct explanation this relationship and his expectations for them:
 
Why am I so negative about the good consumption numbers coming out of the US?  Because the rise in personal consumption was accompanied by a 3.4% decline in household disposable income.  If US household income declines, and this is likely to continue as unemployment rises even further, it is hard to imagine that US households are really going to splurge on new consumption.  Consumption and household income must move in the same direction over any reasonable time period to be sustainable.
 
...
 
So in spite of temporarily good consumption numbers, there probably has been no sustainable increase in US consumption, just in government financed spending. Both China and the US are dealing with their imbalances either by slowing down the rebalancing or by exacerbating the very things that caused the imbalances in the first place. Slowing down the adjustment makes good political and social sense, of course, but it shouldn’t blind us to the fact that US households cannot continue leveraging up to absorb the excess production that Chinese companies are leveraging up to produce. We will rebalance, one way or the other.
 
That’s been our belief too: “We will rebalance, one way or the other.”
 
And wait ... hold the phone ... does China concede to this essential rebalancing?
 
We learned today that they are considering changing the way the yuan is valued. From the central bank’s monetary policy report:
 
“Following the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism, with reference to international capital flows and changes in major currencies, we will improve the yuan exchange rate formation mechanism.”
 
If your jaw dropped, thinking an end to the yuan-manipulation war is in sight, pick your jaw up off your desk and “consider” who we’re talking about here.
 
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com 

----------------

Today we’re launching a brand new Special Bonus for all our Advisory Newsletter Subscribers that I’m sure will become an instant hit. 
 
It’s a new Members Only Webinar Series beginning today – it will be the first in our new series and will be presented at 4:30 PM EST TODAY.  The topic for this afternoon:

An examination of the key global macro themes driving the global economy, the US implicit weak dollar policy, the dollar carry trade, risks to global growth, and probable paths for the US dollar and key currencies.
 
We plan to follow up often with topics Jack and JR feel will help advance your knowledge of the market and ultimately enhance your trading success. These one hour webinars will be recorded and available for advisory service members to watch when convenient if they cannot be there live.  Jack and JR will take all questions from Members during the live seminar.  
 
We think this Webinar Series is a perfect complement to all our services. Whether it’s our Currency Investor newsletter geared toward newcomers and experienced investors who are looking for a conservative approach to the foreign exchange market and a broader examination of the events shaping the global economic landscape ... or any of our more speculative newsletters: Currency Options, Forex & Currency Futures or Emerging Market Currencies. 
 
If you join any of our services today, we’ll make sure you receive an invite to today’s webinar.  
 
And as always, if you have any questions about any of our Premium Services, or about today’s webinar, please don’t hesitate to contact me at the following email address dnewman@blackswantrading.com 
 
Thank you. 
 
David Newman
Director of Sales & Marketing 
Black Swan Capital 
dnewman@blackswantrading.com  

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105