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Wednesday November 11, 2009 - 15:02:02 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009
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The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (NOV 12).
The report serves as a measure of the number of people who file for
unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week, and
gives an indication to the health of the job market, as increases
indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
While this measure tends to be volatile, analysts predict no change since last weekâ€™s measure of 512.00k.
In the past 24 hours, the Euro have not broken the support 1.4925 nor
the resistance 1.5014, that the price stopped at again with accuracy
(yesterday's high is exactly Monday's high at 1.501.
And now, it looks like there is an attempt to break the rising
trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is currently at 1.4975. If
the Dollar manages to drag the Euro to below this line, the rising
trend from last weeks high 1.4625 will be over. And that suggests there
will be a correction matching the size of this trend that will force
the Euro to areas below 1.49 where we find three attractive targets:
Fibonacci 38.2 for the above mentioned uptrend at 1.4868, and Fibonacci
50% at 1.4821, and before them the resistance that stopped the Euro
several times last week at 1.4897. the most important resistance is
defiantly 1.5014, and only breaking it will improve the short-term
technical outlook for the Euro, since such a break will lead the price
up to areas not seen this year, first of which 1.5082 then 1.5144.
â€¢ 1.4975: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
â€¢ 1.4897: the resistance that stopped the price several times last week.
â€¢ 1.4821: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
â€¢ 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
â€¢ 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
â€¢ 1.5144: previous support from 2008.
Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.79 and reached the first target
suggested for that break 89.40 successfully. The break of 89.79, the
support that was provided to us by the rising trendline from last
week's low, clearly means that the short-term trend is a down trend.
However, the correction of yesterday's drop has already started, and is
getting closer and closer to the broken trendline at 89.82 as this
report is prepared. But the most important resistance is 90.23, where
the falling trendline from October 27th top awaits. The bears will be
in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's
most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to
fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the micro-term at 89.53, and
may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82.
If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance
90.23, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31
â€¢ 89.53: Fibhonaci 61.8% for the micro-term.
â€¢ 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
â€¢ 88.33: previous support.
â€¢ 90.23: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
â€¢ 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
â€¢ 91.31: Nov 4th high.
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros â€“ Written by Munther Marji
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
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12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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