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Forex Blog - European Market Update: APEC members cautious on global growth outlook; USD finds verbal support in session (Trade the News)

Thursday, November 12, 2009 5:58:41 AM
 European Market Update: APEC members cautious on global growth outlook; USD finds verbal support in session
- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserve: $433.9B v $432.8B prior
- (FR) France Sept Current Account: -€3.7B v -€4.0B prior
- (SP) Spain Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -4.1%e
- (SW) Sweden Oct CPI - Headline Rate M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.6%e
- (SW) Sweden Oct CPI Underlying M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7%e
- (EU) ECB Nov Monthly Report: Not all monetary liquidity measures would be needed to the same extent as in the past. To withdraw liquidity in gradual manner.
- (SA) South Africa: Sept gold output -9.3% y/y
- (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -12.9% v -14.1%e
- (SZ) Swiss Oct ZEW Survey: 56.4 v 65.0 prior

-In equities: European equity markets have traded in a broad range on the back of mixed sentiment, earnings, and continued commentary emanating from the APEC conference. The pre-market session was awash with earnings representing a plethora of sectors and a wide variation of results. Clear earnings beats came from UK based telecom BT Group [BT.UK] and Austrian banking group [RIBH.AS]. Earnings from potash name K+S [SDF.GE] appeared mixed but shares rallied to trade positive. Earnings misses included French utility EDF [EDF.FR], UK miner ENRC [ENRC.UK], German steel name Salzgitter [SZG.GE] and Denmark based container shipper Maersk [MAERSKB.DC] (which confirmed expectations that it see the posting of its first ever corporate FY loss in 2009). Surprise upbeat guidance from French auto name Peugeot [UG.FR] lifted the name and the broader auto sector. Following a negative open, markets rallied to session highs, led by earnings names and the financial sector. This strength was ebbed past 3:45EST following Central Bank speak from the US, Canada, and China out of the APEC conference. Equities bounced from new lows past 4:30EST as commodities and energy halted a downward trend. Light trading volumes exaggerated equity moves with European markets continuing their uptrend into the 5:00EST hr. Miners and resources sectors have continued to be the primary drag, following yesterday's outperformance, telecoms, financials and defensives have broadly outperformed.

-In individual equities: BT [BT.UK] Reports Q2 Net £428M v £204Me (unclear if comp), Rev £5.1B v £5Be. ||Maersk [MAERSKB.DE] Reports 9-month Net loss DKK3.9B v loss DKK3.6Be, Rev DKK193B v DKK194Be; FY09 group outlook unchanged. ||K+S [SDF.GE] Reports Q3 Net Loss €2.1M (adj) v loss €2Me, Rev €698M v €713Me (-52% y/y); Maintains forecasts. || Salzgitter [SZG.GE] Reports Q3 Net loss €66M v Loss €50Me, Rev €1.8B v €1.9Be, Expects to move towards breakeven in Q4. || Eurasian Natural Resources [ENRC.UK] Provides interim management statement: Revenue in H2 2009 will reflect higher sales volumes and prices || Peugeot [UG.FR] Revises FY09 forecast upwards on the back of market improvement; Recurring Op prof seen breaking even in H2 2009. || EDF EDF.FR: Reports 9 month Rev €48.3B v €45.3B y/y; Confirms FY09 guidance for net income to rise slightly y/y. || Hotchief [HOT.GE] Reports Q3 Net €36M (after minorities) v €50Me, Rev €4.6B v €4.9Be. || ABI Inbev [ABI.BE] Reports Q3 Net $1.6B v $1.4Be, Rev $9.7B v $10Be; Q3 volumes -3.2% y/y. || Raiffiesn [RIBH.AS] Reports Q3 Net €78M v loss €19Me, Rev €1.1B v €1.1Be. ||

- Speakers: APEC Ministers Formal Communiqué noted that the region was committed to resisting protectionism and expressed that the economic recovery was seen as fragile with uneven growth seen in coming quarters. APEC noted that monetary policies should reflect market oriented exchange rates and fundamentals. On the rebalancing issue it stressed that members with external deficits take policies to support policies supporting private savings while members with external surpluses to strengthen domestic growth sources. It noted that unemployment was unacceptably high in some countries. Lastly the group pledged to work together to ensure sustainable economic recovery || US Tres Sec Geithner reiterated the importance of strong USD. He noted that Asia was leading the world towards recovery and that US exports were growing at healthier rate. He stressed that it was important for USD to improve its fiscal situation and that its deficits would be reduced over time || Canada Fin Min Flaherty commented that there was a "very substantial " risk of ending stimulus measures early || ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell commented that Monetary policy could affect market stability and that interest rates are blunt tools against market bubbles. She noted that central banks need new tools to identify risks || China Fin Min Zhu stated that China continue 'moderately easy' monetary policy and its proactive fiscal policy next year (in line with PBoC). He noted that current stability was part of China's stimulus program. He did note that the APEC members had good discussion on exit policy for special measures || France's Lagarde commented that stimulus measures would continue in the Euro-zone through 2010: Euro competitiveness has improved in recent months; Euro-zone economy slightly picking up || Australian PM Rudd commented that Australia supported the USD as a reserve currency and added that th dollar has provided stability from time to time || China Fin Min reiterated that the country would continue its 'moderately easy' monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy next year || UK Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) Lowered its full year 2009 repossession forecast to 48K form 65K prior. It noted that the forecast was being cut "in recognition of lender forbearance, government measures and the beneficial effect of continuing low interest rates || German HDE Retail Association stated that it forecasted 2009 Holiday retail sales down 1.5% y/y and noted that the retail situation to deteriorate in 2010 on rising jobless. It saw overall 2009 sales down 2.0% y/y (unchanged from prior forecast in Sept) but a majority of retail sectors expecting a worsening conditions next year. The HDE did not expect German tax cuts to increase consumption in 2010 || Russia Pres Medvedev commented in his annual address to nation that Russia cannot blame external factors for country's economic crisis and that its export focus was putting brakes on innovation. He noted that over 1M people in Russia were at risk of unemployment || ECB Monthly report mirrors recent Trichet press conference from last week. ECB stressed that not all its liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent as in the past and that the ECB will "make sure that the extraordinary liquidity measures taken are phased out in a timely and gradual fashion || IMF's Strauss Kahn commented in a TV interview the he believed the economic recovery was back on track, but stressed that its too was early to say global crisis was over while unemployment is high. The IMF head commented that the USD had been resilient during the economic crisis and would continue as a main global currency for a long time to come

- In Currencies: The USD continues to maintain a consolidating tone throughout the week despite continued fresh all-time highs in gold and various 13-month highs in equity markets. The APEC summit in Singapore released its formal communiqué and reflected the G20 view on rebalancing efforts. There was a slew of pro-dollar comments from all sorts of finance officials throughout the session. The USD did respond a bit and exhibited some initial strength during the European morning after US Treasury Geithner spoke in the after math of the APEC summit and reiterated importance of strong USD. The EUR/USD tested the 1.4930 level before stabilizing. Dealers did note that Far East names were noticeable buyers of Euros below the 1.4950 area short-term. USD/CHF probing above the 1.0100 level

- Fixed Income: Bonds were firmly bid for most of the European morning but a reversal in risk appetite around 10:00 GMT has seen the market reverse course with Bund futures moving into negative territory and Gilt futures also well off their highs after the DMO sold £1B in 2023 linkers with a weaker than average bid-to-cover of 1.66. Treasuries continue to see good buying in the overnight session with the 10y Note yield moving as low as 3.42% in Europe

- In Energycommodities: IEA November Monthly Report again raised its 2010 oil demand by 140K bpd to 86.2M (5th consecutive increase for 2010 demand). It saw Oct Global supply up 635K bpd to 85.6M bpd. IEA revised higher its 2009 global oil demand by 210K bpd to 84.8M bpd. It did note that the rise in global oil prices posed risk of 'de-railing' economic recovery. IEA saw OPEC Oct compliance seen at 61% v 62% m/m and OPEC Oct output supply up 110K bpd to 29M bpd (highest rate in 10 months). OPEC spare output capacity seen at 5.4M bpd and the OECD oil stock cover at 60 v 60.7 days m/m. Crude oil floating storage seen at 60M ||

*** NOTES ***
- SNB: Does not believe central banks would be inclined to use interest rates to calm market exuberance; ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell seems to disagree
- APEC summit in Singapore cautions against protectionism; early withdrawal of stimulus measures.
- USD finds verbal support from Geithner, other APEC fin mins
- Australian Employment report exceeds forecasts
- India Industrial production beats estimates
- RealtyTrac: Oct US foreclosure activity at 332.3K; -3% m/m, +19% y/y and noted that Four states account for 52% of Oct foreclosure activity

***Looking Ahead:
- Major earnings ahead of US equity open include BCE, KSS, WMT
- 7:00 am (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 6th: No est v 8.2% prior
- 8:30 am (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Nov 7th: 510Ke v 512K prior, Continuing Claims: 5.7M e v 5.749M prior
- 8:30 am (CA) Canadian Sept New Housing Price Index: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 11:00 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
- 14:00 (US) Oct Monthly Budget Statement: -$162.5Be v -$155.5B prior

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