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Thursday November 12, 2009 - 20:22:29 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (12 November 2009)

The euro depreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4950 level and was capped around the $1.5050 level.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner today in Singapore said “(The U.S.) is likely to have to borrow substantially less than we initially anticipated to help repar the damage to our financial system.”  Geithner yesterday verbally intervened to support the U.S. dollar and his comments make it clear the U.S. is trying to be accountable to large holders of U.S. dollars and U.S. debt.  Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly initial jobless claims print at 502,000, down from a revised 514,000, while continuing jobless claims moved lower to 5.631 million. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said the direction of U.S. interest rates will be “contingent on the path of the economy and of inflation.”  In eurozone news, the European Central Bank’s November bulletin indicated the eurozone economy is likely to be stronger than previously anticipated with inflation remaining well below their 2% ceiling target through 2011.  The ECB is clearly in no hurry to raise interest rates and will likely keep them unchanged through at least the first quarter of 2010.  Nonetheless, ECB President Trichet reported some of the central bank’s long-term financing auctions will end next month.  Data released in the eurozone today saw September EMU-16 industrial production climb 0.3% and was off 12.9% y/y.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥90.60 level and was supported around the ¥89.65 level.  Parliamentary Secretary of Finance Furumoto reported Japan supports a strong U.S. dollar and Japan “doesn’t plans to change the basic composition of our foreign reserves and most of them are held in the form of U.S. Treasuries.” Speaking about fiscal stimuli, he added “Japan’s economy is still far away from the stage of considering an exit strategy.  We cannot be optimistic about the Japanese economy at all.”  Data released in Japan overnight saw the October domestic corporate goods price index decline 0.7% m/m and 6.7% y/y.  President Obama will conduct his first state visit from tomorrow that will take him to Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai, and Seoul.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner met with Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa yesterday and said a strong dollar is “very important” for the U.S.  Finance minister Fujii has reportedly indicated the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy is the reason for the U.S. dollar’s recent weakness.  BoJ’s Policy Board recently predicted core consumer prices will decline 1.5% in the year ending March 2010, decline 0.8% in the fiscal year ending March 2011, and decline 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2012.  The central bank recently reported it will stop its purchase of corporate debt and commercial paper at the end of 2009.  BoJ Policy Board’s next interest rate decision is scheduled for 19 November.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.68% to close at ¥9,804.49.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥133.90 level and was capped around the ¥135.00 figure.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥149.90 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar weakened vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8208 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8219.  Pressure is increasing on China to further liberalize its yuan, especially with Obama’s pending visit.  Data released in China yesterday saw October industrial output up 16.1% while retail sales were up 16.2% and consumer price inflation was off 0.5%.  Additionally, it was reported that the October trade balance printed at US$ 24 billion.  State Information Centre official Zhu this week reported Chinese policymakers are unlikely to allow the yuan to appreciate this year and foreign pressures won’t make result in a policy shift by Chinese officials. 

The British pound fell vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as sterling tested bids around the US$ 1.6515 level and was capped around the $1.6625 level.  Sterling was off sharply yesterday after the release of the Bank of England quarterly inflation report suggested inflation could exceed 2% in two years even if the central bank were to lift rates now.  CML Q3 home repossessions fell but are expected to increase in 2010.  BoE Governor King yesterday reported he has an “open mind” on future increases to the BoE’s asset purchase program.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6410 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8975 level and was capped around the ₤0.9065 level. 


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