User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday November 13, 2009 - 14:07:33 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Video Edit: The Global Stimulus and Emerging Markets Show

Key News
Thailand rules out capital controls as baht rises (Reuters via Forbes.com)
Indonesia central bank wants banks to lower lending rates‎ (Alibaba.com)
China Q4 GDP growth could hit 10 pct‎ (Reuters via Forbes.com)
BRDO PRI KRANJU, Slovenia, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Credit activity in the euro zone and globally will remain low because  economic recovery is also expected to be slow, Andrej Rant, deputy governor of the Slovenian central bank said on Friday.  
 
"Recovery will be slow in 2010 and if recovery is on the level of 1 to 2 percentage points, it is difficult to expect strong credit activity," Rant told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a banking conference. 
 
Rant, whose governor, Marko Kranjec, sits on the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said banks were reluctant to extend loans because of high uncertainty on the market and not because they did not have enough money. 
 
"There are no obstacles regarding credits on the supply side, obstacles are on the side of demand because economy is not improving in the way we would want," Rant said.
 
 
Quotable 
“QE created a surge in excess reserves: In September 2008, central banks opened up liquidity facilities to alleviate the stress from frozen fixed income markets. These operations resulted in the build-up of ‘excess reserves' (ER) and an expansion in central banks' balance sheets. In the past, such a build-up in ER would have been ‘sterilised' by central banks by selling government securities. This time around, however, that was not done for two reasons. First, we have argued that central banks have pursued QE with the intention of increasing the growth of money, given near-zero policy rates, while more ER would push overnight rates lower. Second, the sheer size of the increase in ER relative to the size of government securities held by or available to the Fed that could be used to drain reserves was at least partly responsible for central banks not being able to drain excess reserves (see Keister & McAndrews (2009), Haubrich & Lindner (2009)). Under these extenuating circumstances, the Fed even turned to the Treasury for assistance and the Supplemental Financing Program was created to help drain ER (see Appendix for details on how the SFP worked and how its wind-down will push up excess reserves).
 
But why have excess reserves stayed so high? Could be a supply-side issue... Tautologically, commercial banks are holding on to excess reserves because they cannot put the funds to better use. However, this does not help us in identifying whether supply or demand is the source of the problem. While reserves may be higher than required by regulators, banks may not consider them ‘excessive' in an economic sense, as argued by Friedman and Schwartz (1963).  Commercial banks could be hoarding this cash with a ‘precautionary motive', much as consumers increase savings when uncertainty around their income stream increases. This would be a problem on the supply side of the loanable funds market.” 
       Manoj Pradhan
 
FX Trading – Video Edit: The Global Stimulus and Emerging Markets Show
 
REWIND:
 
The latest G-20 communiqué said nothing new. You know ... where the leaders told us they’re not yet ready to rein in the stimulus they’ve provided to their respective economies. 
 
FAST-FORWARD:
 
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, is spewing all kinds of commentary this morning. 
 
On one hand, he’s affirming the position taken by the G-20 to remain supportive till a legitimate recovery ensues. 
 
On the other hand he’s stressing the fact that there should be a coordinated effort to peel back stimulus amidst a firm recovery.
 
Back to the one hand, he admits the global recovery remains fragile.
 
But back to the other hand, he warns that hot money flowing into emerging markets threatens adverse currency moves and asset bubbles; thus forming exit strategies is necessary.
 
REWIND:
 
When the credit crunch hit in earnest, emerging market assets felt severe pain. Stocks were sold off; emerging currencies lost major ground to the US dollar.
 
The South African rand is one example: [Chart not available in text format.]

In less than two quarters at the end of 2008 the US dollar skyrocketed while the South African rand lost more than 55%. That’s a monster move in the currency world.
 
FAST FORWARD:
 
Since then there’s been a steady sentiment shift back into riskier assets. The rand epitomizes such risky assets and over the last year has erased the losses it suffered.
 
This is exactly the type of hot money flow that the IMF head hauncho is talking about: “The resurgence of capital flows to emerging markets, including several in Asia, is presenting policy challenges.”
 
With increasing confidence that the global economy is coming out of the mud, more and more money is moving into these emerging markets and emerging currencies.
 
PAUSE:
 
Keep in mind the potential scenarios, and potential risks, we might be dealing with.
 
Scenario #1: Pull the Stimulus Too Soon
 
This is probably the biggest concern right now. We continue to see improved numbers on the economic front ... in several different regions of the globe. But will national economies be able to sustain the recovery when global policy makers cut them off from stimulus money?
 
From Reuters:
 
World Bank Chief Robert Zoellick told the "APEC CEO Summit" that consumer confidence was the key factor in deciding when to hand back to the private sector the primary role for stimulating growth. 
 
"If you look at the U.S. stimulus programme, and many other stimulus packages, a lot of the money actually comes in late 2009, the start of 2010. But the question mark for everybody is whether the private sector will kick in by the middle of 2010 and that is partly an issue of confidence." 
 
Scenario #2: Keep the Stimulus Coming
 
Oddly enough, there doesn’t seem to be too much concern with keeping the money taps flowing freely. The most blatant risk seems to be a possible asset bubble from which bursts more pain that a shaky global economy won’t easily be able to handle.
 
More from the IMF’s Strauss/Kahn:
 
“While capital inflows are generally beneficial, they can raise risks of rapid and potentially destabilizing movements of currencies and asset prices.”
 
“Policymakers should therefore keep supportive measures in place until a recovery is firmly established and conditions for unemployment to recede are in place. In some emerging markets, including a few in Asia, the recovery is further along, and crisis support policies may need to be unwound sooner rather than later.”
 
PLAY:
 
Basically, policy-makers are having a sticky time balancing expectations, but boy oh boy are they getting good with the typical economist’s multi-hand approach to markets.
 
As I see it, policy makers are going to err on the side of stimulus. At this stage in the game an asset bubble does not concern them. An asset bubble may concern market participants, but it does not concern policy makers looking to keep the globe afloat and prevent, at all costs, a double dip.
 
Get out your oven mitts!
 
The hot money is going to be around a while longer; but there are going to be some speed bumps getting in the way of these capital flows as we move along.
 
An area to key on is in the emerging markets – they embody the risk appetite mentality that drives markets right now. Over the next several months we will likely see a continued surge by emerging market currencies relative to the US dollar. 

But it won’t be that simple, as concern about stimulus and/or asset bubbles will certainly spark some periods of shakedown. 
 
It’s possible that we see some countries enact capital controls as Brazil and Taiwan.
 
It’s possible that we see some central banks move toward tightening monetary policy.
 
It’s possible we see more emerging nations, e.g. Hungary, fail to live up to the stipulations of stimulus loans from the IMF and others. 
 
Just make sure you’ve got your oven mitts on ... wouldn’t want you to get burned.
 
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com 
 
 
Get Your Emerging Markets Fix
 
All this week Jack and JR will be highlighting emerging markets and their respective currencies. 
 
They plan to offer insight to the global macro perspective that’s driving capital into, or in some cases out of, these lesser-developed nations. They’ll also be offering a look inside some individual nations and their prospects for growth ... and the prospects for their currencies. 

This series of emerging market commentary and analysis will culminate in a FREE Emerging Markets Webinar that will be held next Thursday, November 19th. Details on the webinar will be given in upcoming issue of Currency Currents. Or, feel free to contact us at info@blackswantrading.com for immediate details.
 
Jack and JR continue to spot excellent investment and trading opportunities in emerging market currencies. We offer a newsletter that expands upon the dynamics of these economies and seeks to exploit opportunities offered by powerful moves in emerging currencies.
 
Click here to read more if you’re interested.
 
Thanks again for being a loyal reader,
 
David Newman
Black Swan Capital 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105