Monday November 16, 2009 - 10:24:14 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 16, 2009
Fundamental Analysis, Canada
â€¢ Monday: Manufacturing Sales MoM (Previous -2.1%, Expected 1.6%)
â€¢ Wednesday: CPI MoM (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous
-0.9%, Expected 0.3%). Core CPI MoM (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.0%)
& YoY (Previous 1.5%, Expected 1.7%).
â€¢ Thursday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 1.1%, Expected 1.7%).
Get further analysis on CAD/USD and other currency pairs at Forexpros.
The Euro moved in both directions, before choosing the upside, creating
a rising move that continued from Friday until after the open last
night, that elevated the EURUSD to 1.4971 until now. The most important
support for medium-term is 1.4786, which is a crucial support, for
setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would
indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a
break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but
for the medium-term as well. However, for the short-term, the most
important support is 1.4934, and breaking it would indicate that the
fall will carry on and target the important 1.4786, and if broken we
will see a test of the bottom that we saw twice 1.4682. The resistance
is at 1.4972, and breaking it would send the price to test the top that
we saw twice last week 1.5018, which is the key to 1.5082 that could be
seen for the first time this year.
â€¢ 1.4934: short-term support.
â€¢ 1.4856: Oct 28th & 29th high.
â€¢ 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.
â€¢ 1.4972: short-term resistance.
â€¢ 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
â€¢ 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
After halting with a reasonable accuracy near the resistance of
Friday's report 90.52, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.02 and reached
the first suggested target 89.60. Friday's price behavior introduced
the support 89.46, that we will adopt as support of the day. IF this
support is taken, we will finally see the long awaited visit of 88.82,
the important support for the medium-term. And if broken the next
target will be October 13th low 88.13. As for the resistance, it comes
from short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.12. A break here would indicate
that the odds of surpassing Friday's high are very good, and that will
target 90.90 first, and may be 91.31. Even though the falling trendline
from 92.31 was broken on Thursday, still the technical picture of the
medium-term is hazy, and we await more signals to help us determine the
direction of the medium-term.
â€¢ 89.46: obvious support on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
â€¢ 88.13: Oct 13th low.
â€¢ 90.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
â€¢ 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
â€¢ 91.31: Nov 4th high.
Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
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