Pressure from APEC Continues to Mount Against U.S. Dollar
The U.S. Dollar continues to feel downside
pressure from APEC comments at the mid-session.Earlier the group of Asian-Pacific nations pledged to maintain stimulus
until thereâ€™s signs of â€śdurable growthâ€ť.This served as a sign that liquidity in the global markets will continue
until strong economic trends can develop.Excess liquidity reduces the Dollarâ€™s allure as a safe haven currency
and increased demand for higher yielding assets.
APEC leaders also challenged President
Obama who is facing a credibility crisis.APEC wants to know if he is committed to free trade since recent actions
by the U.S.
regarding Chinese imports seemed to be indicating otherwise.The APEC nations also endorsed Chinaâ€™s stance in fighting protectionism and
declined to back U.S.
calls for a stronger Yuan.Some analysts
are calling this trip a failure for Obama. Others are saying it is bad timing
for the U.S. to go after Chinaâ€™s
economic policies at this time.
The global recession revealed the need for
the global economy to rebalance.China has been trying to build an economy which
relies less on the U.S.
consumer.Obama said last week that the U.S. should
â€śsave more and spend lessâ€ť.While China has been trying to do its part, it is
calling for the U.S.
to do the same.China resents the increases in U.S. tariffs
and deems them as a sign of developing protectionism.They view Obamaâ€™s requests as one-sided.The U.S.
is going to have to try a different approach or risk losing China as the
major purchaser of Treasury debt.
The Obama administration has been attacking
economic policies since Geithner was appointed Treasurer.This week-ends stand by China and APEC may be indications that the U.S. should
reconsider its approach.
The EUR USD is trading higher at the
mid-session.Late last week it was
reported that the Euro Zone economy is showing signs of growth.This is helping to give the Euro a boost as
it brings the European Central Bank closer to removing stimulus and raising
interest rates.The real challenge to
this market will be the reaction by traders when the high for the year at
1.5063 is tested.Trend traders will
most likely add to positions on a breakout over this level.Counter-trend traders will be looking to sell
into this resistance in an effort to force the start of a double-top
The â€śXâ€ť factor will be whether the ECB
comes out with a challenge of its own when the price of the Euro reaches this
level.Will they issue a stern warning
which scares out the longs or will they allow the EUR USD to move higher in an
orderly fashion.The ECB may be
concerned that a high priced currency will curtail demand for Euro Zone goods,
but they canâ€™t stop the progress if the Euro Zone economy continues to improve
and the currency moves higher with low volatility and for sound economic
The bulls have once again taken control of
the GBP USD despite attempts by the Bank of England to talk the currency
lower.Todayâ€™s strong move puts the market
in a position to challenge the recent top at 1.6843.A new swing bottom has been formed at 1.6515.
A sign that the Japanese economy is turning
around is helping to pressure the USD JPY.Overnight it was reported that Japanâ€™s economy expanded in the
third quarter at the fastest rate in more than two years.The actual results also blew away the
Higher equity and commodity prices are
providing support for the higher yielding AUD USD, NZD USD and USD CAD.The Aussie Dollar is moving steady which
means investors are seeking higher yields rather than speculating on another
interest rate hike.The Canadian Dollar
is stronger, but traders seem tentative to drive this currency higher until
economic numbers can back the gains.Traders are still worried the Bank of Canada may take action to prevent
its currency from rallying as it approaches par with the U.S. Dollar.
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