Strong Dollar Triggering Weakness in Equity Markets
Equity markets are trading a little weaker on the
opening.Yesterday this market stalled
after an early morning surge and sold off into the close. Negative comments
from analyst Meredith Whitney are said to have been the catalyst for the break
as investors took a little money off the table after the recent rally.Traders continue to question valuation in
this market, but as long as the Dollar remains low, have no strong reason not
to buy stocks.
Treasury futures surged to the upside on Monday, but are
trading weaker overnight.Yesterdayâ€™s
initial rally was triggered by a revision in the September Retail Sales
number.The second wave of buying came
after Fed Chairman Bernanke said interest rates would remain â€śexceptionally
lowâ€ť for â€śan extended periodâ€ť.
The strong rise in the Dollar is helping to pressure
December Gold.This is giving investors
an excuse to take profits.The trend
remains up so traders should treat this move as a correction rather than a
change in trend.Speculation has been
driving this market higher.Traders are
anticipating inflation but if it doesnâ€™t begin to show up soon, there may be a
sharp correction.Central bank buying
has also been a key influence on this market.
Speculators triggered a short-covering rally in December
Crude Oil which is not expected to last.Lower equity prices and a stronger Dollar could drive this market lower
today.The bearish supply/demand
scenario is strong enough to limit gains.
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher overnight based on
oversold technical conditions.Yesterdayâ€™s comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke regarding the Dollar may
also be triggering a short-covering rally as well a position-lightening.The overnight action has not been sufficient
enough to call for a change in trend.
The short-term trend may reverse temporarily because traders
usually get nervous whenever a central bank official talks about their
currency.This usually leads to
counter-trend trading as investors reel in profits and adjust positions to
protect their exposure to any sudden changes.This appears to be what is going on overnight and could develop into the
theme for the day.
The December Euro is trading lower overnight.Each time this market has approached the
$1.500 area there has been selling pressure.Traders seem to fear the wrath of the European Central Bank if the Euro
rises too far, too fast.Early this
morning, ECB President Trichet made a comment which in effect was an attempt to
talk up the Dollar. Technically, the Euro could break back to 1.4837 to 1.4825.
The December British Pound is weaker this morning.Yesterdayâ€™s rally was triggered by positive
comments from Bank of England member Andrew Sentance.This was a departure from last weekâ€™s comments
from BoE Governor King who tried to talk down the British Pound.The charts indicate a possible pullback to
1.6706 to 1.6697.
Short-term oversold conditions and the fear that the Bank of
Canada may enter the market to drive down the currency are helping to boost the
U.S. Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar.
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