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Tuesday May 25, 2004 - 07:36:55 GMT -

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Trend line and Ichimoku Clound Resistance in Euro

Daily Forex Technical Report 5-25-2004

Trend line and Ichimoku Cloud Resistance in Euro
Oscillators Overbought in British Pound

Range trading remains the persistent theme in the EURUSD. The continual contraction of short-term volatility and a symmetrical triangle on the daily increases the risk of a non-directional imminent range expansion as volatility reverts back to more normal levels. Immediate support is at 1.1930/50, the 10-day SMA / 200-day EMA / May 18, 19 & 24 low / trend line support and 38.2% fibo from 1.2182-1.1770. A move below that level would expose the May 20 low at 1.1893, which would attract bears to position for a test of the interim double-bottom support at 1.1760/70, the lower Bollinger / April-26 low / 2-yr bull channel support. Immediate resistance is at 1.2075-80, Friday's high, trend line and Ichimoku cloud. Should bulls manage to push the pair above that level, it would expose 1.2135/45, the May 7 spike high and upper Bollinger. However, bulls looking for a resumption of the uptrend would need to wait for a close above the May 5th high at 1.2180. Monday's bull candle and bounce off of 112.05, the 20-day SMA and 38.2% retracement of 125.79-103.42 gives scope for further near-term gains in USDJPY towards the previous 114.85 May 14 high. However, with daily stochastics and MACD pointing lower, the bull rally has the risk of exhausting once again below the former head and shoulders neckline at 115. A break below support at 111.75, the May 21 low would give aggressive bulls an opportunity to buy on dips. More conservative bulls will wait for 110.50, the 38.2% fibo of 103.40-114.90. A break below that level would negate the overall bullish trend. Longs have extended Friday's rally in the GBPUSD for a possible test of the head and shoulders neckline and 50-day SMA at 1.8000/1.8010. The move above 1.7955, the May 21 high / 50-day EMA / trend line resistance exposes the more crucial upper Bollinger / May 7 high at 1.8055. Overbought stochastics suggests that bulls will need to garner significant strength to sustain moves above that level. A close above 1.8055 would negate bearish momentum. Immediate support is at 1.7820, Monday's low and the 10 & 20 day EMA cross. A break below short-term support at 1.7730, the May 21 low and 10-day SMA, would give bears a stronger chance of a further decline towards the lower Bollinger at 1.7540. Oversold intraday oscillators will give bulls the opportunity to take advantage of the continual range play in USDCHF. The current sell-off will meet strong support at 1.2700, the May 5 & 17 low / 50% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226 / lower Bollinger and 100-day SMA. A break below that level would represent a departure from the range and exposes 1.2600, the April 1 low. The moving average confluence, 20-day SMA and 61.8% fibo of 1.3085-1.2700 at 1.2830/40 should cap gains and keeps the downtrend intact. Even if that level is taken out, the 200-day SMA and psychological resistance at 1.3000 will attract a good number of renewed shorts. A close above the 1.3100 former highs would be needed to negate short-term bearish momentum and give bulls an opportunity to target a move towards 1.3200, the 50% fibo of Aug-Jan bear wave / upper Bollinger and 1.3230, the 4/26 high.


Comment from 05/05
On 04/15 EUR/CHF had a low at 5441 (slightly above our 5400/40 zone) before a rally to the 04/23 High at 5617, 176pts higher. A similar scenario played out a couple of days ago with a low at 5414 on 04/29 and a high at 5557, 143pts higher yesterday. The outlook is still bullish as long as the 5400 level holds. However a nasty series of lower Highs (triangle) on the 5400 level gives good weight to the bears' case. Many breakout players will start to add in the Swiss below 5400. Bulls who are not already long will probably wait and see, but the aggressive fakeout/reversal crowd will probably take a shot at 5350/90 in order to exploit the 38.2% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bull wave. A sustained breakout below 5350 would then open the door to 5200 and the 50% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bull wave. Bears will also consider 5600/5620 (typical range/add on bounce play) thanks to the 50 SMA and High BB. Finally, 5700/30 will be to watch for the bears thanks to the 23.6% Fibo from the Jun - Mar bull wave.

On 05/10 EURCHF had a low at 5374 before a quick bounce to the 5440 high on 05/11, 66pts higher. A similar scenario played out on 05/12 (low at 5341) with a rally to the 5423 high on 05/17, 82pts higher. EURCHF is now stalling on the 5350 level but the trend is now clearly bearish. Aggressive reversal bulls will then step in at 5280/5300 in order to exploit the Low BB and 38.2% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bull wave. A sustained breakout below would then open the door to 5070. Higher, bears will have two major areas to consider: 5420/50 thanks to the 20 EMA and 50% Fibo from the May 03 - Mar 04 bull wave and 5700/5750 thanks to a robust Fibo confluence (23.6% Fibo from the May 03 - Mar 04 bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Jul 03 - Mar 04 bull wave).


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