U.S. Dollar Finishes Higher in Choppy, Two-Side Trade
The U.S. Dollar managed to close higher today despite late
session attempts in New York
to erase earlier gains.This is strong
evidence that most of today‚Äôs rally was due to short-covering rather than fresh
buying.Comments from ECB President
Trichet were supposed to show support for Bernanke‚Äôs comments from yesterday,
but actually helped ignite the rally in the Dollar.Technically, the Dollar is oversold on the
daily chart.This is another reason for
today‚Äôs up move.
The EUR USD closed lower after European Central Bank
President Trichet talked up the Dollar during the overnight session. Once again
it looks like the Euro having trouble with the $1.5000 area.The high for the year at 1.5063 in October
has stopped all recent attempts to break this level.Traders seem fearful that the ECB may take
stronger action other than verbal intervention to force the Euro lower.
The GBP USD closed lower after making a valid attempt to
turn higher for the day. The uptrend has been strong in this currency lately as
the bulls seem to have control over the market despite attempts by Bank of England
Governor King recently to talk this currency lower.It looks as if traders are beginning to
believe that the economy has bottomed and that the BoE is getting ready to
reduce quantitative easing.
Weaker crude oil and lower equity prices helped support a
strong rally in the USD CAD.Traders are
also fearful of possible action by the Bank of Canada if they take the Canadian
Dollar higher. The BoC wants a weaker currency to stimulate the economy. Last
month the BoC‚Äôs Harper issued a stern warning that the highly priced Canadian
Dollar was curtailing the economic recovery.
Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from
its November 3rd meeting.The minutes
hinted that an interest rate hike over the near term is not likely.This is helping to pressure the AUD USD this
morning.This report was just a
confirmation of a statement issued earlier in the month that current economic
conditions warrant the central bank to maintain interest rates at current
levels.The chart indicates that a break
to .9155 to .9096 is likely over the short-run.
The NZD USD saw selling pressure today as demand for higher
yielding assets dropped.Weakness in the
Aussie Dollar also led to spillover selling. The main trend is down.The charts indicate that .7302 to .7301 is a
possible downside target over the next 2 to 3 days.
The stronger Dollar helped the USD JPY form a closing price
reversal bottom.A follow-through rally
tomorrow will confirm the formation.This pattern usually leads to a 2 to 3 day rally and a 50% retracement
of the last break.This means 90.53 is
the next potential upside target.
The USD CHF is in a down trend and range bound.The main range is 1.0337 to 1.0035.This range forms a retracement zone at 1.0186
to 1.0222. Today‚Äôs intra-day rally took the market into the retracement zone
where it found selling pressure.This
pushed the market lower where it finished off the high.
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