Wednesday November 18, 2009 - 03:41:45 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-Nov-2009 - 0339 GMT
The Dow (10437.42) and the Nasdaq (2203.78) rose a little over quarter percentage each yesterday. The Resistance near 10400-10500 continues to be tested on the Dow. If tested it may come down towards 10000 this week.
The Asian indices are trading mixed. The Nikkei (9716.35) is trading marginally lower while the Shanghai Composite (3312.60) is trading nearly 1% higher. The Nikkei chart looks bearish going forward as it is not being able to susain its up waves, while the Shanghai Composite looks extremely bullish and may target 3500 over next couple of weeks. On the Nikkei, break of 9650 may lead t a further fall towards 9400 over the next couple of weeks. To see the chart of Nikkei, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeicandle.shtml#candle
The Sensex (17050.65) ended flat after trading lower for most part of the day yesterday. There could be some hesitation near 17300 levels, beyond which 18000+ on Sensex is acheivable over the course of next few weeks.
Crude (79.53) is continuing to trade higher on the hopes of an increase in demand ahead of the upcoming holiday season. It is now trading near the significant Resistance region 79.75-80.00 a break above which might see fresh rally towards 84-85 in the coming days. However, if it holds we might see 77-76 on the downside once again. US Crude inventory data is due today. To see the Resistance of the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1138.80) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 1127.80 and is keeping up its upside momentum. A break above 1150 might target 1175-1200 over the next few days. On the downside significant Support is seen in the region 1120-00 which we expect to hold. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Dollar saw some strength yesterday against most currencies, but has given back a part of it. There has been a good bounce back in the Euro (1.4885) from an overnight dip to 1.4810 as the Euro consolidates between 1.48-50. The Aussie (0.9275) remains strong overall but has been unable to rise past the critical resistance at 0.9335 this week. Important Support seen at 0.9220. The Pound (1.6800) looks the strongest of the three, with chances of moving further up towards 1.69+. Dollar-Swiss (1.0157) has dipped back a bit after rallying to 1.0210 yesterday.
Dollar-Yen (89.25) is trading just above 89.00. It had seen a low near 88.75 yesterday. There can be chances of seeing 90+ while the market remains above 88.00. The Euro-Yen Cross (132.88) had dipped to near 132.45 yesterday. Unless it regains ground above 133.00 today (it can), there may be chances of a deeper fall towards 131.00.
The Sing Dollar (1.3859) and the Korean Won (1152.70) remain strong, but have not posted fresh highs against the USD in the last couple of days. The trend remains anti-USD however. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 46.30 yesterday. A test of 46.40 is possible today.
3M USD LIBOR continued to be set at 0.27%. The yields on US Treasuries remained unchanged after having fallen over the last 2-3 days in succession. The LIBOR 3 months differentials between USD, JPY and EUR semes to have stabilised since the beginning of this year. To see the chart, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/differential3.shtml#3mthdiff
09:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold
12:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
01:30 GMT US Oct Housing Starts
...Expected 0.610 Mln...Previous 0.590 Mln
01:30 GMT US Oct Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
Oct UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 1.5%...Previous 1.1%
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 6.8 Bln...Previous 1.0 Bln
US Oct Core PPI (MoM)
...Actual -0.6%...Previous -0.1%
US Oct Core PPI (YoY)
...Actual 0.7...Previous 1.8%
US Oct TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Actual $ 40.7 Bln...Previous $ 28.6 Bln
US Oct Industrial Production
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 0.6%
US Oct Capacity Utilization
...Actual 70.7%...Previous 70.5%
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