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Forex Blog - European Market Update: BOE members split three ways on quantitative easing measures (Trade the News)

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 5:58:00 AM

 European Market Update: BOE members split three ways on quantitative easing measures

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (SP) Spain Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -4.0%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Current Account: -5.4B v 0.6B prior; Current Account nsa: -5.0B v -3.5B prior
- (SA) South Africa Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.1% v -4.6%e
- Bank of England Minutes: MPC members revealed a split vote over the asset target
- (EU) Euro-zone Sept Construction Output M/M: -1.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -8.0% v -10.0% prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: European markets have traded positive throughout the morning session despite a mixed picture in Asia. Equities gains rolled out of the NY trading day on Tuesday that continued to silence a growing chorus correction bears. Commodities have continued their upward trend, oil is now on three day positive trend, gold continues to print new all time highs and copper has broken its 2009 highs. This commodity action has bid corresponding equity sectors that include miner, energy and industrials (along with heavily energy oriented Russian benchmark RSX). M&A speculation regarding Cadbury [CBRY.UK] has threatened to move into the European deal-saga category with accelerated rumor and report that a Hershey [HSY] Ferrero bid is in the early works. Premarket earnings included Dutch listed grocer Ahold [AH.NV] that posted strong figures and
UK based home building supplier Wolseley [WOS.UK] that continued to guide a bearish outlook. Markets are still awaiting earnings out of Europe's largest airlines Air France [AF.FR] expected after the close and the 11:00GMT announcement from the European Commission regarding the restructuring of KBC Groep [KBC.BE]. Into 5:30EST markets have remained bid, but on continued weak volume.

- In individual equities: Mitsubishi UFJ 8306.JP: Reports H1 Net 141B v 100Be, Rev 2.6T v T2.9T y/y, confirms 1T equity capital raise (about 18% of mkt cap). || Ahold [AH.NV] Reports Q3 Net Income 238M v 180Me, Rev 6B v 6Be. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reports October truck sales 13K v 11.6K m/m, -41% y/y. || Wolseley [WOS.UK] Provides interim management statement: Reports 3-month Rev 3.4B -13% y/y. || Land Securities [
LAND.UK] Reports H1 Basic NAV/share 6.22 v 6.39 y/y, Rev 419M v 405M y/y. || Air Berlin AB1.GE: Reports Q3 net profit 95M v 81Me. Rev 974M v 963Me. || NicOx [COX.FR] Announces Private Placement for 20-30M (8% of market cap), to launch subsequent rights issue. || Faurecia [EO.FR] To sell as much as 231M in convertible bonds (17% of market cap); initial bond sale set at 175M. ||

- Speakers: BOE minutes noted that the MPC members weresplit three ways on extending the quantitative easing measures. A majority of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee wanted a 25B increase. Chief Economist Spencer Dale favored no change and David Miles sought a 40 B. The minutes also showed the the MPC discussed lowering the deposit rate on bank reserves to encourage lending. MPC voted 9 to 0 to maintain interest rates at 0.50% || China Premier Wen stated that China did not seek a trade surplus with the US and would like to take steps towards balancing its bilateral trade with America||UK Business Sec Mandelson stated that Britain will enshrine in law its commitment to halve the budget deficit over the next four years. He added that more details would come in the pre-budget report, due on Dec. 9th.|| Japan Fin Min Fujii commented that
Japan to finalize tax shortfall figure in Dec. He noted that the 4Q economic performance would likely worse than +1.2% reported in 3Q. He reiterated that US Tsy Sec Geithner wants to strengthen USD || Polish Fin Min Rostowski commented that Polish debt would not exceed 55% of GDP in 2010; but conceded that it would be a bigger problem in 2011 period || China Premier Wen commented that China did not seek a trade surplus with the US and would like to take steps towards balancing its bilateral trade || BoE agents survey noted that consumer spending rose in Q3, but volatile remained in its week-to-week readings. It noted that the availability of credit might have eased slightly. Housing activity remained above weak year ago levels and investment intentions remained muted. It did note a continued modest pickup in exporters and that few contacts saw future large job cuts as necessary

- Currencies: The market has seen supportive comments for the dollar in recent session but verbal rhetoric alone will not change the sentiment. Specifically the trend seems likely to remain intact until Fed increases its rhetoric on a potential exit strategy. The dollar remains in a consolidation phase aided by a double-no-touch option in effect from an alleged central bank. The dollar price action in the session was again dependent upon the commodity markets. Spot gold hit fresh all-time highs near $1,148/oz and silver and copper exhibited strong gains. NYMEX crude futures were also firmer with Dec contract back testing the $80 handle.
- The GBP did register some volatility following the BOE minutes. GBP/USD fell by 50 pips and tested 1.6760 after a three-way split was revealed in the MPC's decision to extend QE by 25B.

- Fixed Income: Government bonds are have been quietly offered this morning in
Europe amidst modest strength in equity indices. The exception is short dated Gilts which are bid after the BoE minutes admitted to discussion over lowering the deposit rate. The minutes revealed a three way split with the majority 7 seeking the eventual 25B increase and two dissenters at opposite ends of the spectrum. Spencer Dale marked out his territory as the new leading hawk on the MPC having sought no extension to QE whilst David Miles sought a 40B increase, the second display of dovish dissent from Miles in 4 meetings. Short sterling futures are higher across the curve and yields sharply lower - the June contract being the best performer, up 7 ticks at the time of writing. Germany sold 5B in a new 2 year Schatz, with a bid-to-cover of 1.7x. Perhiperal markets are for the most part weaker versus Germany, with the Greek 10y now though 150bps over bunds. Treasuries are weaker across the curve and swap spreads are broadly wider. The belly (5s and 7s) have under-performed the rest of the curve while the benchmark 10y Note is +2.5bps at 3.347%.

- In Energy: Venezuela Fin Min Rodriguez commented that oil prices wee not determined by supply and demand, but by speculation

***Notes:
- PBoC advisor Fan: Risk of double dip in US economy but not in China. Short term inflows are becoming a problem. FX rate is very secondary in resolving global imbalances. Danger of asset bubbles.
- Spot Gold hits fresh all-time highs at $1,147.95/oz; other metal and energy firmer as well
- BOE registers a three-way split on its QE expansion
- EUR/USD continues to maneuver within the 1.48 to 1.51 double no touch option range
- Both Lloyds and KBC win EU approval for restructuring of operation

***Looking Ahead:
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Q3 GDP: -1.3%e v -4.5% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 13: No est v 3.2% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.1%e v -0.9% prior,
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Oct Core CPI M/M: 0.0%e v0.3% prior, Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.5% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Oct Employment M/M: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: -2.5%e v -2.4% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Oct Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.7%e v 0.4% prior, Y/Y: 2.6%e v 3.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Consumer Price Index M/M:0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v -1.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct CPI; Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5% prior; CPI Price Index: 216.069e v 215.969 prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Housing Starts: 600Ke v 590K prior; Building Permits: 580Ke v 575K prior
- 10:30 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories: Crude: +1.1Me; Gasoline: +850Ke; Distillate: -800Ke; Capacity Utilization: 80%e

 

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