The Yen has lost ground to every other currency in the G-10
except the Dollar, since March of 2009.The BOJ has always favored a weak currency as it supports their large
export business which accounts for over 20% of their GDP.
The Chart above is a daily JPY chart looking back through
this past March. Although the Yen trended down it was extremely volatile
through August.After mid August it
continueda less volatile trend towards
a handle of 88.00 before retracing to 92.00. Since mid October it has been
struggling to breach near term resistance at 88.00.
On the daily JPY chart below you can see we added Bollinger
Bands (BB). BB are very good during range trading and very dangerous during
trending markets.BB are best understoodas a mean or avg as indicated by the yellow
dotted line.The red lines represent a
standard deviation from the mean. In short you expect price to be somewhere
between the 2 red lines.When price
nears one of the bands you expect it to return toward the mean, what traders
call a reversal.
Notice that from March through August the same period of
time shown on Chart A above that price moves precisely the way we expect with
BB.The green swing line shows price
moving from one band to the next. However, towards the end of August price does
not move towards the mean as the JPY has started to trend.This is why BB are difficult to use during
trending markets as we do not expect price to move back towards the mean.
There are a number of tools available to you via your
charting platforms that can help you isolate when to expect the BB reversal
versus a false reversal signal.On the
lower half of Chart b the Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps traders identify
when a trendis strong and may continue.The red vertical line that runs through the
false reversal signal also shows that the RSI indicates we are in the footholds
of a strong trend. Typically an RSI descending after breaching 70 (over bought)
or ascending after breaching 30 (oversold) indicate a weakening trend.
Currently the JPY is sitting on the lower band of the BB and
the RSI reads low in terms of trend strength.Additionally, the Yen is bumping up against R1 and R2 is fairly close as
well.For now it appears that the trend
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