U.S. Equity futures are trading sideways to lower after an
attempt to reach a new high for the week overnight failed.December E-mini S&P 500 futures made a
high this week at 1112.00.A breakout
above this level could trigger a sharp rally to a major 50% price at
1122.00.The weaker Dollar is expected
to provide some support for higher yielding assets.Contrarian traders will be watching to see if
there is a divergence from this trading pattern.This will signal a short-term top in the
This morning it was reported that the Core CPI rose 0.2%
while Housing Starts fell 10.6%.Treasury futures are trading a little lower after the news.A higher CPI number will be an indication of
inflation which helps push interest rates higher.This will put pressure on the December
Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes.A
sharp sell-off in the equity markets could trigger a flight to safety rally in
the Treasuries.Both of these scenarios
are possible today which means a two-side traded is likely.Watch for volatility.
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against all majors as
overnight rallies in the stock indices and gold are once again pulling the
Dollar lower and signaling renewed demand for higher risk assets.
Even European Central Bank President Trichet couldnâ€™t
prolong the rally in the Dollar.Yesterday he expressed support with Fed Chairman Bernanke in supporting
the Dollar.His comments triggered a
short-covering rally which could not be sustained overnight.ECB member Jean-Claude Juncker said overnight
that Trichet did what he had to do, but that the Euro wasnâ€™t high enough to
curtail the Euro-Zone recovery.
The December Euro is trading higher and appears to have the
momentum to drive past $1.5000 this time.Certainly, Junckerâ€™s comments have taken out the fear of buying the Euro
as it begins to break out above this price.Traders have been reluctant lately to buy when the market approached
this figure out of fear the ECB would try to prevent the currency from
advancing further.Last nightâ€™s comments
give traders the green-light to begin the move which takes the Euro behind the
annual high at $1.5063.
The Bank of Englandâ€™s minutes show a three-way split in the
vote to expand the asset-purchase program.This is helping to provide support for the December British Pound this
morning.It also signals that the BoE is
not likely to expand the program any further at its meeting next month.It looks at if technical factors may be
limiting gains.Current conditions
suggest that the recent rapid rise has put this market in an overbought
December Gold touched a new high overnight before backing
off slightly.The lower Dollar is the
driving force behind this rally.Fresh
buying from central banks is also helping this market to move higher.The slight rise in U.S. inflation seems to be having
no effect on precious metals this morning.Unless the Dollar mounts a strong comeback rally, continue to look for
gold to appreciate.
January Crude Oil is up this morning.Overnight the nearby December contract touched
$80.00 once again.Speculator demand for
higher risk assets, a firm equity market and a weaker Dollar are also driving
this market higher.Todayâ€™s supply and
demand report should set the tone for the market for the balance of the
day.With Bernanke calling the economy
fragile, demand may continue to be down, thereby driving supply up.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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