Bad Housing Starts Report Limits Upside Movement in U.S. Equity Markets
Despite the weakness in the Dollar today, U.S. Equity
markets could not get on track for a rally because of a bad housing starts
report. This morningâ€™s decline in U.S. Housing Starts capped gains throughout
the day although the markets were able to eke out a slightly better close.
Traders are beginning to question stock valuations given the current weak state
of the economy.
Treasury futures traded lower throughout the session despite
the weak housing starts report. Today the U.S. also reported that the Core CPI
rose.This report was most likely the
cause of the break as it served as a reminder that inflation was still out
there. Technically, today's closing price reversal indicates overbought
conditions and could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day break.
This weaker than expected housing starts report kept
downside pressure on the equity markets throughout the trading session.The choppy trade in the U.S. Equity markets
created see-saw movement in the currencies throughout the day. Traders didn't
know whether to buy the dips in the Dollar in anticipation of a drop in equity
markets or to sell more Dollars.
The December Euro posted a sizable gain.Tuesday's supportive comments from European
Central Bank President Trichet were not enough to stop the Dollarâ€™s slide
today. Matters werenâ€™t helped after Luxembourg premier Jean-Claude Juncker said
that the Euroâ€™s rally hasnâ€™t hurt the Euro Zone recovery.This comment gave traders the green light to
drive the currency higher. If upside momentum continues at the current pace, we
could see a test of 1.5063 tomorrow.
The December British Pound traded lower on Wednesday. This
was triggered by a negative reaction to the Bank of England minutes and
overbought technical conditions. Traders reacted to thenews from the BoE minutes that the vote was
split regarding the recent expansion of the central bankâ€™s quantitative easing
program.The initial reaction to the
split vote was positive as it suggested the bank would not expand further. The
market, however, broke after a follow-through rally failed. Traders looked for
the safety throughout the New York session while they sorted out the data from
the minutes report.
December Gold made a new high for the year but settled
slightly better.Today's early rally was
triggered by the weaker Dollar and today's inflation data.Gains were limited because the Dollar ended
up strengthening throughout the day. Although no reversal top was formed, the
close near the low suggests the selling may be greater than the buying at
January Crude Oil finished better on speculation and the
lower Dollar.Todayâ€™s oil inventory
report suggested that consumer demand is still falling.If the Fedâ€™s assessment of the economy is
right, then demand should continue to drop because of the fragile economy and
high unemployment. All this market needs is a stronger Dollar to send it lower.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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