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Thursday November 19, 2009 - 03:43:45 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 19-Nov-2009 - 0342 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Dow (10426.31) and the Nasdaq (2193.14) closed relatively flat yesterday as the markets continue to consolidate near the 13-month High. Yesterday's Housing Starts numbers fell by 10.6% and is being seen as drag on the economy. Nor was the future earnings forecasts by the technology companies any impressive. Traders are expecting the market to be in the range till the end of the year. In fact there can be profit booking near the current levels as investors might want to take home the gains from the 8-month rally ahead of the new year. The Resistance near 10400-10500 is hear to stay for some time.

The Nikkei (9584.01) continues to fall and seems to be the weakest among most of its counterparts. It is trading 0.96% lower today. It has fallen nearly 2% this week already. It having broken below 9650 is now likely to fall further towards 9400 over the next few days. The Shanghai (3292.92), too, is trading lower today. Expect it to rise towards 3500 over next few days. The Sensex (16998.78) saw some mild correction yesterday and may follow the cues from Asian indices and see from profit taking today as well.

COMMODITIES
Crude (79.40) has risen yesterday following the EIA's Crude inventory data release which showed an unexpected drop of 900K barrels against the expected 300K barrels. However, the fall in the housing starts data released earlier is still keeping the pressure on the hopes of the economic recovery. If Crude continues to trade above 79, a strong break above 80 might trigger fresh rally towards 84-85 in the coming day. A break below 79 might pull it down towards 77-76.50.

Gold (1143.30) has come off from yesterday's high of 1153.40. However, the broader picture remains bullish and we might see a rise towards 1175 over the next few days where some Resistance is seen. On the downside Support is seen in the 1120-00 region.


CURRENCIES
Profit-taking seems to be hitting most non-Dollar currencies, with the Aussie (0.9255) and Pound (1.6695) coming down quite a bit. The Euro (1.4925), Yen (89.14) and Swiss Franc (1.0124) are ranged. The Asian currencies have also weakened a bit. Dollar-Rupee has opened higher near 46.37 and is trading near 46.39/40 at the moment.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.27%.

The Treasuries have little changed. The 2Y yields (0.77%) have been trading near the 9-month lows as traders believe that the US economy is growing too slow for the Fed to raise interest rates next year. The US has earlier announced that the interest rates shall not be raised for an "extended period".

The 10Y and 30Y yields are at 3.34% and 4.26%.


DATA TODAY
15:00 GMT Oct US Philifed Index
...Expected 12.5...Previous 11.5


DATA YESTERDAY
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold

CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.8%...Previous 1.5%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/cacpi.shtml

US Oct Housing Starts
...Actual 0.53 Mln...Previous 0.59 Mln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ushsgstarts.shtml

US Oct Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.2%...Previous 0.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uscpi.shtml

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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