European Market Update: Concerns over capital flows reverberates around the markets; OECD raises its 2010 GDP forecast to +1.9% from +0.7% prior view from June (Trade the News)
Thursday, November 19, 2009
European Market Update: Concerns over capital flows reverberates around the markets; OECD raises its 2010 GDP forecast to +1.9% from +0.7% prior view from June
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Nov 13: $441.7B v $433.9B prior - (SZ) Swiss Oct Trade Balance: CHF2.5B v CHF1.91B prior; Exports M/M: 0.1% v -1.9% prior; Imports M/M: 0.6% v 3.2% prior - (SZ) Sweden Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 8.4%e - (NV) Netherlands Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.3%e - (IT) Italian Sept Total Trade Balance: -897M v -1.4B prior; Trade Balance EU: -388M v -378.0M prior - (UK) Oct Major bank Mortgage Approvals: 61K v 56K prior - (UK) Oct Retail Sales M/M: %0.4 v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.9%e - (UK) Oct M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.8% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 11.0% v 9.9%e - (UK) UK Oct Public Finances-PSNCR: 5.9B v 4.0B prior; Net Borrowing: 11.4B v 7.0Be) - (UK) BOE Trend in lending report: Firms report concerns over access to finance; Consumer credit to remain weak in coming months - OECD Nov Member Economic Outlook: Raised 2010 GDP view to +1.9% from +0.7% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets have traded to the downside after shaking off an aborted rally at 3:30EST. Market declines have followed similar equity rotation in US and Asian sessions. Equity declines have been driven by a range of disappointing corporate news and commodity price declines that are coming off 2009 highs. Disappointing medium term guidance from Danone [BN.FR] and earnings from Air France brought weakness into the consumer staples and industrial carrier sectors. The heavily basic resource weighted FTSE100 took a hit from a range of copper, silver and ore related names all trading lower. In other earnings related action, brewer SABMiller [SAB.UK] continued its outperformance and traded higher, semiconductor name Infineon [IFX.GE] broke a 7-consecutive quarter net loss streak but continued to trade lower on expectations. Revised OECD 2010 and 2009 GDP forecasts at 5:00EST pulled markets off their downward trend. Into 5:30EST, European equity markets remain broadly negative on light volumes.
-In individual equities: SABMiller SAB.UK: Reports H1 Net $1.2B v $1.1Be. Rev $13.4B v $13.5Be, declares interim dividend of $0.17/shr v $0.16/shr y/y. || National Grid NG.UK: Reports H1 Rev 6.0B v 6.1B y/y; Declares interim dividend of 1365 pence/ share (+8%). || Infineon [IFX.GE] Reports Q4 Net 14M v 20Me (first net gain in 7 quarters), Rev 855M v 840Me. || Air France [AF.FR] Reports Q2 Net -147M v -128Me, Rev 5.6B v 5.7Be. || Severstal [CHMF.RU] Reports Q3 Net $66M v loss $39MMe (unclear if comp), Rev $3.5B v $3.4Be. ||
- Speakers: Fed's Fisher commented that a depreciating dollar was not necessarily inflationary but added that there were "trade-offs" between low rates and a strong dollar . He noted that 2010 GDP growth might be less than forecast and that unemployment could stay high for long time, vexing unemployment levels more than 10.2% || Fed's Plosser commented that history suggests that the USD should be allowed to fluctuate. He noted that the dollar was not a target or a goal of monetary policy and that the decline of the dollar over the last year has just been reversal of the run-up after the panic. He added that a weaker dollar in recent years can be understood as a market response to imbalances. Plosser also noted that the Fed will struggle and debate on timing to raise interest rates and noted that there was no reason for concern on asset bubbles. He did not see Asian assets as mispriced. Stronger US growth would reduce flows to Asia and he was less fearful of a double dip recession. || BOE's Fisher commented that it would need to eventually reduce BOE balance sheet and that the balance sheet would not likely return to pre-crisis scale. The BOE could continue corporate debt purchases during period of tightening. He noted that tightening was raising interest rate; asset sales or a combination of both methods. || Russian Central Bank stated that the country needed a Tobin Tax on cross-border forex. Country would only enact Tobin measures after extensive discussions, || Japan Fin Min Fujii stated that never had intention to promote yen's rise so as to hurt exports. He also noted that Japan must be careful about interest rates rise not caused by improvements in economy. He expressed satisfaction that Japanese yields have declined in recent sessions || BOE Trend in lending report: Firms report concerns over access to finance; Consumer credit to remain weak in coming months || OECD raised its 2010 GDP view for its members to 1.9% from the prior June view of +0.7%
- Currencies: Risk aversion sentiment crept back into the market sentiment on Thursday as both the USD and JPY pairs firmed while equities and commodities faltered. The USD saw some initial gains during the European morning. Dealers noting the potential for more capital controls as emerging market countries eye moves to curb inflows and currency appreciation. Indonesia's central bank noted that it was 'seriously' studying the option of limiting foreign fund inflow into its short-term bills. Russia was considering ways to control the cross-border flow of capital, including a "Tobin tax" on international foreign-exchange transactions. These comments followed Brazil which mulled new measures after capital inflows late on Wednesday. EUR/USD still maintaining the double no-touch option range of 1.48 to 1.51 but is probing the lower end of the range ahead of the alleged Friday expiration . Risk aversion was also fueled by Fed comments that US GDP growth could fall below current consensus view. The EUR/JPY pair was highlighted as one of the main pairs to watch for any clues to possible new trends. The pair tested its 200-day moving average at 132.02 and held that technical support for the time being. Throughout the last 18 months this mvg avg has been a key factor in currency trends and risk sentiment. ||
- Fixed Income: Government bonds have exhibited a softer tone in an eventful session this morning in Europe. Germany is weaker across the curve with the belly underperforming after a deluge of supply from France. The Agence Tresor sold 7.5B in 2/3/4/5 BTAN's & OAT's with reasonable results, while Spain sold 3B in 15-yr bono's with a bid to cover stronger than the prior. European perhiperal markets , and in particular Greece, continue to struggle against the core, with the Greek 10y blowing out over 10bps to 165bps over Bunds, the widest level in that spread in roughly 6 months. Gilts tumbled in response to a dismal Pubic finances report for October, which included the first October deficit on record, while better than expected public finances did little to help bearish sentiment. The BoE's Fisher noted that the BOE was open to all possibilities at its February meeting which saw the short end subject to even urther selling. He also noted that the BoE would like to see firther issuance of index linked gilts, presumably to negate claims of debt monetization and assuage fears of foreign buyers strike. THe DMO sold 450M in 2037 linkers in a mini-tender. With the long end holding up best under the weight of selling, 5s30s notably flattened 4bps to 151bps. A revival in fortunes has done nothing for Treasuries. The 10y note is down 1 tick with a cash yield arounf 3.37%, with the market keeping more than just one eye on todays 2/5/7y note announcement, with expectataitons for an increase on the prior $116B.
- In Energy: PetroChina [PTR] noted that it would supply 200M cubic meters of natural gas per day, a record level.It increased its gas supplies due to a shortage being seen in China. ||Indian Oil Secretary commented that there were no immediate plans to raise retail fuel prices at this time
- Geo-political: President Obama In talks with partners about consequences due to Iran failure to respond to nuclear deal offer
***Notes: -Nikke 225 Index closes at 4-month lows - OECD revises its 2010 GDP forecast to 1.9% from its June view of 0.7% - Protectionism weighs upon market sentiment - Fed speak overnight not expressing much concern over the dollar's weakness - Stall zone: Dealers ponder the growth potential if Americans would actively buy cars without "Cash for Clunkers"? Would they actively buy a house without the housing tax credit? And adding whether would companies want to hire now if they thought a "jobs tax credit" was in the works
***Looking Ahead: - 8:00 (PD) Poland Oct Producer prices M/M: 0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.6% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Oct Sold Industrial Output M/M: 1.1%e v 15.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -1.3% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept Wholesale Sales MoM: 01.0%e v -1.4% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept International Securities Transactions: C$3.0Be v $5.1B prior - 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims: 504Ke v 502K prior; Continuing Claims: 5.598Me v 5.631M prior - 9:00 (US) Sept RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: No estimate versus -9.76% prior; Index: No est v 200.29 prior - 10:00 (US) Oct Leading Indicators: 0.4%e v 1.0% prior - 10:00 (US) Nov Philadelphia Fed: 12.2e v 11.5 prior - 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories - 11:00 ECB's Trichet - 11:00 Treasury's 2/5/7 year note announcement - 12:00 Turkish Central Bank Base Rate Decision: Consensus expectation for a 25bps rate cut to 6.50%
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