Friday February 18, 2005 - 00:50:17 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 18th February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1845 ... 1.1870 ... 1.1894 ... 1.1929
Support....: 1.1795 ... 1.1763 ... 1.1736 ... 1.1710
Slightly mixed - though still prefer a bullish stance
We are slightly frustrated with the lack of recovery with a further erratic move lower which has deepened the bullish divergence. However, these do require confirmation and we feel that a move above 1.1845 will help while a breach of the 1.1894 high would provide better confirmation. If seen we should then see price continue higher towards 1.1929-45. Further resistance is found at 1.1967 and then 1.2030-50.
Further drift lower was seen yesterday which keeps the downside under threat with a low at 1.1795. While the momentum is slowing and a bullish divergence threatens reversal, until we get a break back higher we cannot rule out further spikes lower. Failure to overcome 1.1845 and then 1.1894 would still keep the pressure on the downside. A move below 1.1795 would then extend losses to 1.1763 and 1.1736.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th February 2005
The drop below 1.1940 negates the scenario calling for the 1.2262 peak to be Wave (a) of Wave (iii) and now labels the 1.2262 peak as Wave (i). This implies a deeper pullback with the 1.1874-88 area being supportinve and also the 1.1747-78 area which represents an approximate 50% retracement. We feel that the decline from 1.2262 has developed in a double zig-zag and therefore only above the intervening Wave -b- around 1.1997-00 would avoid the development of a triple three. Therefore we need to be a little cautious but if we see that final ABC pattern lower it should provide an excellent buying opportunity.
17th February 2005
We feel that the decline yesterday occurred in three waves and thus suggests the risk that a triple three is complete. However, we cannot ignore the decline from the 1.1945 peak which has been equally strong as the rally from 1.1831. However, if the downside is to continue then the first 5 wave move should end around 1.1804 and we still see significant support around 1.1747-78. To confirm recovery higher we need a break still of 1.1963 and the 1.2000 area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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