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Friday February 18, 2005 - 09:59:02 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 18/2/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $47.8 level, moving down from previous clsing levels. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped to lose around 10.750, as expected in my previous report, also weighed by the current USD weakness.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3060 level. Barely unchanged with respect to yesterday’s report levels, and still unable to break above the 1.31 level, which would mark the clearing of the first fibonacci retracement level of the current downleg. The 1.31-1.3160-1.32 area is a tough one and it looks to me to hold the key for the coming days, since it has the first 2 fibonacci retracement levels plus the 50-day moving average and also the third and last fibonacci fan (speed) line converging there. A break below 1.30-1.2940 would resume the bearish sentiment, which could lead to a strong selling pressure for the single currency.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2611. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day down the 50-day. Pair is now above the 20-day moving average.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8970 level. The pair broke the 50-day moving average to the upside in yesterday’s session, and looks poised for an attemtp to the 1.9040 level, with the permission of the 1.8975/80 level, and only a break below 1.89 would negate this view. The sentiment for the pair has improved since its long signal by the Indicators Watch Level 1 some days ago. The 50-day moving average should act as support for now. It is quite surprising to me how the daily indicators picture conflicts with the weekly one.... more volatility to come is the only thing that I can see for sure now.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8462. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above them both, though.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1835 level. USD could not hold above the first fibonacci retracement level and after breaking it down it almost tested the second one, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average, so we should see a pullback near those levels. USD bulls need those levels to hold if they don’t want to get in danger.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2190. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is below the 20-day now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6885 level. Unable to break up the current downtrend it has dipped again below the 0.69 level, closing again below the 20-day moving average. Dynamic support is found around 0.6870. EUR is with less momentum than GBP at this moment.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6827 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages and pair is trading below them both now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Neutral –closing the short signal. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

toni@fxstreet.com

 

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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