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Friday November 20, 2009 - 21:16:14 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (20 November 2009)

The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4800 figure and was capped around the $1.4935 level.  Many dealers attribute today’s sell-off to a year-end unwinding of trades that chased higher-yielding assets at the expense of the U.S. dollar.  Additionally, U.S. equity markets lost further ground today, leading to a further paring of long risk trades.  U.S. interest rate expectations have also dwindled over the past month.  June 2010 fed funds futures are implying about a 28% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will lift interest rates by then, down from 68% one month ago.  In other Fed news, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s nomination hearing will begin in Congress on 3 December.  Congress is currently deliberating some measures that would jeopardize the Fed’s political independence.  Data to be released in the U.S. on Monday include the Chicago Fed’s October national activity index and October home sales data.  Philadelphia Fed President Plosser indicated it is “not quite time” to raise intest rates and added he is “less concerned about the possibility of a double-dip” recession.  In eurozone news, German Chancellor Merkel called for “coordinated exit strategies” as the global economy emerges from crisis.  Data released in the eurozone today saw German October producer prices remain flat m/m and off 7.6% y/y.  Speaking in Germany today, European Central Bank President Trichet hawkishly reported “Not all our liquidity measures will be nedded to the same extent as in the past.  Any non-standard measure whose continuation would pose a threat to the achievement of price stability must be undone promptly and unequivocally.”  The ECB is unlikely to renew its offer of twelve-month loans to banks after its third offering in December and the central bank will likely offer fewer three-month and six-month loans in 2010. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥88.70 level and was capped around the ¥89.15 level.  As expected, Bank of Japan’s Policy Board kept its overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.1%. BoJ Governor Shirakawa said the government and the central bank share the view that prices will keep declining.  Shirakawa also defended his belief that purchasing more corporate bonds will not help the economy, saying “When there is a shortage of demand in the economy, providing liquidity alone won’t help to push prices higher.”  Most BoJ-watchers believe the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged through at least most of 2010.  The government today reported that the economy “is in a mild deflationary phase” and finance minister Fujii reported there is a “sense of crisis” about the declining prices. This was the first time the government reported the economy is in a deflationary phase since 2006.  Referring to the economy, the central bank reported “Japan’s economy is picking up mildly due to various policy measures taken at home and abroad, although the momentum of a self-sustaining recovery in domestic private demand remains weak.”  Even though both the BoJ and the government acknowledge deflationary pressures, the two cannot agree on policy responses.  BoJ’s Policy Board recently predicted core consumer prices will decline 1.5% in the year ending March 2010, decline 0.8% in the fiscal year ending March 2011, and decline 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2012.  The central bank recently reported it will stop its purchase of corporate debt and commercial paper at the end of 2009.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.54% to close at ¥9,497.68.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥131.80 level and was capped around the ¥132.95 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥146.45 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar came off vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8289 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8295.  People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou reported China is “passive” on the U.S. dollar and that its value does not impact the Chinese economy.  Zhou also said the central bank “will continue to maintain the moderately loose monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy for a while.”  U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner this week reported he is “quite confident” China will relax controls on its currency. 

The British pound came off sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6460 level and was capped around the $1.6675 level. Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision will be released on 3 December and rate-setters are expected to keep interest rates unchanged with the main Bank Rate at 0.50%.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Fisher yesterday warned the central bank “may well not” be able to reduce its bloated balance sheet to pre-crisis levels.  Fisher also said “all options will be open” when the central bank next considers its asset purchase program in February.  The central bank today warned consumer credit will remain weak over the coming months.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6430 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.9010 level and was supported around the ₤0.8945 level.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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