Investors continued to dump higher risk assets today
triggering weekly closing price reversal tops in the December E-mini S&P
500 and the December E-mini NASDAQ.A
follow-through break to the downside in both of these markets next week will
confirm the reversal top and lead to the start of a 2 to 3 week break.
The trend may turn down on the daily chart, but the weekly
charts still indicate that the main uptrend is still intact.A break though 1026.00 will turn the main
trend down on the S&P weekly chart.The
current pattern suggests that a break to 1069.00 is likely this week.A trade through 1650.25 will turn the NASDAQ
contract lower on the weekly chart.The
current set up points toward a test of 1732.00.
Despite the lower equity markets, Treasury Bonds couldnâ€™t
hold on to earlier gains and fell on profit-taking.Bernanke gave the green light for Treasury
traders to continue to get long as he cited a weak economic picture as the main
reason for the Fed to keep pressure on interest rates.Money leaving the equity markets and seeking
safety also gave December T-Bonds and T-Notes support.
After reaching a 15 month low early in the week, the U.S.
Dollar closed higher for the week against a trade-weighted basket of
currencies.Technically, this closing
price reversal, once confirmed, often leads to a 2 to 3 week retracement.The daily chart suggests that a move through
77.50 is necessary to turn the main trend to up.
The low for the week for the Dollar was posted shortly after
Fed Chairman Bernanke mentioned his concern for the Dollar in a speech.Although he never said the Dollar was too
weak, he did say that the Fed would monitor its value to make sure that it did
not interfere with its mandate to shore up employment and maintain price
At first this statement seemed like the similar lip-service
the Treasury usually produces when asked about the Dollar. Traders definitely
reacted this way when they sent the Dollar lower and stocks higher.The next day, however, European Central Bank
President Trichet stated he agreed with Bernanke then proceeded to talk up the
Dollar.In my opinion, it was the
statement by Trichet which had the most impact on the Dollar as it put an end
to the rally in the Euro.
Attempts were made this week to drive December Gold lower,
but aggressive longs would not let this happen.Gold surged higher from the get-go this week to post a new all-time
high.The strengthening Dollar had some
impact on the gold market on Thursday when it triggered a break from $1151 to
$1130.Buyers quickly stepped in on the
lows to drive the market higher, setting up a finish slightly below the high
for the week.With a bullish pattern
developing in the Dollar Index, gold may have a hard time rallying next
week.Those considering shorting gold
should be careful however until the market posts a clear and decisive topping
January Crude Oil made its fourth consecutive lower high on
the weekly chart.The close near the low
for the week suggests that an acceleration to the downside is imminent.Also glaring is the divergence crude oil has
had with the Dollar, gold and equity markets.The weekly chart suggests that a break though 76.27 will trigger this
sell-off.Speculators are starting to
realize that demand will continue to drop as long as the economy remains week.
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
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