The recent bout off risk aversion continued on Friday night, slightly extending losses in many asset classes. The S&P500 fell 0.3%, Dell shares falling 10% after missing earnings estimates. Asian and European bourses also recorded modest falls. Oil fell 0.7%, but other commodities escaped the downbeat sentiment, copper +0.9%, and gold bouncing 0.5% but shy of the 18 Nov high. Short-end US interest rates made fresh lows, January-maturity treasury bills turning negative (as they did in December 2008), and six-month bills (0.14%) down at 1958 levels, speaking to the volume of liquidity searching for a risk-free home. 10yr treasuries weakened by 3bp, looking more to inflation potential. In credit news, a Ukranian state-owned rail company defaulted on its debt, but the markets dismissed any view of a ripple.
Currencies were generally weaker against the US dollar. EUR players, aware of a large option with strikes at 1.4800 and 1.5100, were unsurprised it fell to 1.4802 but no further. It recovered after London's to 1.4860. GBP lost around 1% to the 1.6500 area. JPY was stable within 88.70-89.10.
AUD fell from the 0.9200 area to a 0.9060 low, breaking below its post-March trend support line, but then regathering to around 0.9150. More worrisome for AUD bulls are two strong technical warning signals formed at the Friday close - the outside-down week plus bearish overbought RSI divergence.
NZD fell from 0.7320 to 0.7200, only rebounding to 0.7250, and forming similar technical warning signals to the AUD. AUD/NZD moved higher from sub-1.2600 to 1.2640, and appears to be headed beyond the 1.2700 recent high.
No US data to report.
Bank of Japan on hold. The Board's statement offers a realistic assessment of the state of Japan and the world, mixing of recognition of recent improvement with appropriate caution on the sustainability of policy driven outcomes to date.
German producer prices flat in Oct. The annual rate was steady at -7.6% yr.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today: The increase in warning signals from several fronts (technical, sentiment, flow and positioning) argues against tactical longs. NZD looks the weaker of the two, and shorting at 0.7315 resistance is preferred on the day.
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