Monday November 23, 2009 - 03:38:31 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 23-Nov-2009 - 0336 GMT
The Dow (10318.16) had closed flat last week as the Resistance at 10500 continues to weigh. Whether it holds are breaks depends a lot on a number of economic releases this week including US Personal Income, Consumption, Durable Gooods Orders and Q3 GDP.
Among the Asian indices last week, the Shanghai (3329.86) rose 3.78% while the Nikkei (9497.68) fell nearly 2.80%. The Sensex which had risen 1% last week may see some further gains this week and may target 17500+.
Today, the Asian indices are trading higher. The Nikkei is closed on account of Labour Thanksgiving Day today. The Shanghai is up nearly 0.5% and so is Hang Seng and All Ordinaries.
Crude (78.20) has risen from Friday's low of 76.76 as the dollar weakend in the early Asian session today. With immediate Support in 77-76.50 region, we may expect a rise towards 79.50-80 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1162.70) has risen sharply as the dollar weakend in the early Asian session today and is keeping up the uptrend intact targeting 1200. Immediate Resistance is seen in 1170-75 region a break above which might see 1200 on the upside. On the downside Support is seen in 1145-40 region. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
After the consolidation of the last couple of weeks, there is a recovery in the non-Dollar, non-Yen currencies today.
Importantly, Dollar-Yen (88.92) continues to remain above 88.65. Support may be building up between 88.50-87.50. The Euro (1.4920) had seen a low near 1.4801 on Friday, but risen well from there, keeping the overall uptrend well alive. The Aussie (0.9190) has also recovered well from Friday's low near 0.9057. Further rise might be seen this week. Dollar-Swiss (1.0136) too has come down from Friday's high near 1.0225. Standing out, the Pound (1.6515) which had been battered last week has not seen as much of a bounce.
USD-SGD (1.3869) found an important Resistance at 1.3925 last week and has fallen from there, keeping the longer term downtrend alive. Similarly, USD-KRW (1155.40) too has fallen back after finding Resistance near 1168. The lows set last week might be tested again this week. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 46.59 on Friday. With the recovery in the Euro and the Asians, it might dip towards 46.40 this week.
3M USD LIBOR dipped 1 bp to be quoted at 0.26% on Friday last week. The yields on US Treasruies have dipped last week. The 2Y and 10Y benchmarks yields are now quoting at 0.72% and 3.37% respectively. The 10Y yields are trading near a good Support and the yields may rise a little this week on this Support. To see the graph, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
15:00 GMT Oct US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 5.72 Mln...Previous 5.57 Mln
...Actual 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
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