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Monday November 23, 2009 - 12:47:58 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, 2009
Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis
Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST
Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices
are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run.
Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the â€˜Forex
101â€™ series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market
correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage
of these market relationships.
Click here to join the webinar.
Traders await tomorrow's release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.
The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and
determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's reading to stand at 92.50, and increase from last month's 91.90.
The Euro dropped and broke the specified support in Fridayâ€™s report
1.4877, successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.4820. But it
stayed above the most important support 1.4786. Short-term support is
provided by the rising trendline from Fridayâ€™s low on intraday charts,
and if broken we will get another chance to test 1.4786 after Fridayâ€™s
attempt that stopped at 1.4800. The above mentioned support will stay
the most important, especially with the rising line from August 17th
low getting close to this level. Short-term resistance is 1.4952, and
if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength
to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect
1.5082 for the first time this year.
â€¢ 1.4881: the rising trendline from Fridayâ€™s low on intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.4820: November 13th low.
â€¢ 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
â€¢ 1.4952: the falling trendline from 1.5047.
â€¢ 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
â€¢ 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range on Friday, without any
technically significant moves! The down movement has slowed down,
drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a
pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this
pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher
on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise
and break short-term resistance 89.05 where there is the moving average
SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling
trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above
mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to
90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken,
we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the
last 15 years low 87.10
â€¢ 88.72: Nov 17th low.
â€¢ 88.13: Oct 13th low.
â€¢ 87.10: Jan 12th low.
â€¢ 89.05: the moving average SMA100.
â€¢ 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
â€¢ 90.73: intraday top.
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All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
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