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Monday November 23, 2009 - 13:11:31 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, Supplemental
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, Supplemental
Fundamental Weekly Outlook
â€¢ Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.6, Forecast 55.8) &
PMI Services (Previous 57.7, Forecast 57.4). Germany PMI Manufacturing
(Previous 51.0, Forecast 51.6) & PMI Services (Previous 50.7,
Forecast 51.2). Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Forecast
51.2) & PMI Services (Previous 52.6, Forecast 52.9).
â€¢ Tuesday: Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders MoM (Previous 2.0%, Forecast
1.0%) & YoY (Previous -23.1%, Forecast -17.1%). Business Confidence
Indicator (Previous -1.78, Forecast -1.65). Germany GDP QoQ (Previous
0.7%, Forecast 0.7%) & YoY, (Previous -4.7%, Forecast -4.7%),
Private Consumption (Previous 0.7, Forecast -0.4%), Capital Investment
(Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.8%), Imports (Previous -5.1%, Forecast
3.5%), Exports (Previous -1.2%, Forecast 4.1%). IFO - Business Climate
(Previous 91.9, Forecast 92.5), IFO - Current Assessment (Previous
87.3, Forecast 88.0), IFO â€“ Expectations (Previous 96.8, Forecast
97.3). France Consumer Spending MoM (Previous 2.3%, Forecast 2.4%)
& YoY (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 2.3%). Business Confidence Indicator
(Previous 89, Forecast 91).
â€¢ Wednesday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous 4, Forecast 4).
â€¢ Thursday: Germany CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.5%).
â€¢ Friday: Germany Import Price Index YoY (Previous -11.0%, Forecast
-8.7%) & MoM (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.4%).. France Consumer
Confidence. Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -35, Forecast -35)
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Previous -18, Forecast -17).
â€¢ Monday: Existing Home Sales MoM (Previous 9.4%, Forecast 2.3%).
â€¢ Tuesday: GDP QoQ (Previous 3.5%, Forecast 2.9%), Personal Consumption
(Previous 3.4%, Forecast 3.2%), Consumer Confidence (Previous 47.7,
Forecast 47.5), House Price Index MoM (Previous -0.3%, Forecast -0.1%).
Minutes of Nov. 4 FOMC Meeting (Text Report).
â€¢ Wednesday: Personal Income (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.2%), Personal
Spending (Previous -0.5%, Forecast -0.6%). Durable Goods Orders
(Previous 1.0%, Forecast 0.5%), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation
(Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.7%). Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 500K,
Forecast 505K), University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 66.0,
Forecast 67.0), New Home Sales MoM (Previous -3.6%, Forecast 0.8%).
â€¢ Wednesday: Trade Balance (Previous 520.6 B, Forecast 465.5 B).
â€¢ Friday: Jobless Rate (Previous 5.3%, Forecast 5.4%), Tokyo CPI YoY
(Previous -2.4%, Forecast -2.3%), Tokyo CPI EX Food & Energy YoY
(Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.4%), National CPI YoY (Previous -2.2%,
Forecast -2.4%), National CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.0%,
Forecast -1.1%). Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast -0.9%) &
YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.6%).
â€¢ Wednesday: GDP QoQ (Previous -0.4%, Forecast -0.3%) & YoY
(Previous -5.2%, Forecast -5.1%), Private Consumption (Previous -0.6%,
Forecast -0.2%), Exports (Previous -1.4%, Forecast 1.4%), Imports
(Previous -2.2%, Forecast 2.0%).
â€¢ Monday: New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM (Previous 2.9%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -2.0%, Forecast N/A).
â€¢ Tuesday: CB Leading Index (Previous 1.8%, Forecast N/A).
â€¢ Thursday: Private Capital Expenditure (Previous 3.3%, Forecast 1.0%).
â€¢ Monday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.6%) & Retail Sales Less Autos (Previous 0.5%, Forecast 0.4%).
â€¢ Friday: Current Account (Previous -11.2%, Forecast N/A).
The pair has pulled off the low of the range (1.4800), and looks
prepared to move back higher to test some former highs. This will
either be confirmed or rejected based on movement through the following
A move back above 1.4890 indicates movement back above 1.4900 and a
test of recent swing highs at 1.4930-1.4940. We have trendline support
above this at 1.4950-1.4965, this will also act as resistance. Beyond
is resistance at 1.4980-1.4990.
Keep in mind that old support and resistance become new resistance and
support respectively if a level is moved through and then retreats
back. Movement through one level indicates movement to the next, and
failures are likely to move back to other levels mentioned. Support and
resistance does not mean rates will move exactly to the price
mentioned, rather they are profit taking opportunities in those areas
(or possibly entry prices if moved through) as retracements are more
likely around those levels. This is misunderstood by many traders, and
I will elaborate on it on an upcoming post on my blog.
For further in-depth reading on USD/CAD and other major currencies, visit our Technical Analysis section.
A drop back below 1.4840 is our first indication of a move lower. The
trend line this move would break is short term and not of high
importance. The closest major level is 1.4800. A break below that would
A break below 1.4800, if it is legit, will find support at 1.4770,
1.4740-1.4730 then 1.4700. If the break is not legit and just a stop
run, it will likely tucker out by 1.4780-1.4770 and then reverse. I say
that only we because we all know there are a pile of stops sitting down
Keep in mind that since we know stop hunting is a common practice,
whether intentional or not, and is a strategy in and of itself. If
there is a level that is likely to have many stops it, it seems to
create a gravitational pull and can result in a quick surge but often
retraces. Watch and see if you see this happening around critical
levels. If there is interest I can post a article on how to trade this
phenomenon. Have a great day trading everyone!
Forex Analysis written by Cory Mitchell, in conjunction with Forexpros
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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