Euro Up Big on Speculation U.S. Economy Will Weaken
The EUR USD is trading sharply higher overnight as
speculators increase bets the U.S.
economy will continue to weaken.Traders
are basing their expectations in part on U.S.economic reports this week which are expected
to show a slower than expected recovery.
Today, existing home sales may show a slight increase in
October, but tomorrowâ€™s revised GDP could be cut below the 3.5% increase
presented last month.Among other
concerns for investors are high unemployment and foreclosures.Recent reports have showed the U.S. economy is
losing momentum which indicates a long, bumpy road to recovery.
Overnight, traders are reacting to news that the Fed will
keep its stimulus measures intact and interest rates low beyond the announced
March 2010 date.This is triggering the
rally in the Euro as speculators believe that the European Central Bank is in a
position to begin removing its stimulus from the market.
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis President James Bullard said that he supported extending the Fedâ€™s
mortgage buyback program beyond March 2010.The dovish language recently used by the Fed is helping to drive the
Dollar lower and demand for riskier assets higher.Bullardâ€™s position was based in part on his
analysis of unemployment and labor markets.He said, â€śunemployment is high, and labor markets are lagging.â€ťDuring a holiday shortened, low volume week,
this type of comment can go a long way as seen by the punishment the Dollar is
Bullardâ€™s comment along with speculation the ECB may begin
to withdraw stimulus measures has put the Euro back on a path toward $1.5000 or
perhaps even a test of the high for the year at $1.5063.Now that some central banks are close to
lifting stimulus measures, investors are starting to use more traditional
analysis to position themselves in the Forex market.This means interest rate differential
analysis.At this time with the ECB
holding interest rates at 1.0% and the Fed maintaining historically low rates,
the best return is in the Euro.This is
another recent why this market should rise.
Unless the ECB steps in to talk down the Euro or use more
aggressive tactics to weaken its currency, a new high for the EUR USD is
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Mon 26 Feb 2018 A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales Tue 27 Feb 2018 A 08:55 DE- Jobless B 13:30 US- Durable Goods A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony Wed 28 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP AA 13:30 US- GDP A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 1 Mar 2018 A All Day final Mfg PMIs A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Fri 2 Mar 2018 AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
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