Tuesday November 24, 2009 - 05:51:28 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 24-Nov-2009 - 0549 GMT
The Dow rose a handsome 132.79 points (1.29%) to 10450.95 yesterday, but is now faced with an important resistance at 10500, which is a "make or break" level. The Nasdaq too rose 1.4% to 2176.01 but also faces an important resistance at 2210. US stocks have risen on better-than-expected previously owned home sales.
But the Asian stocks are mixed, not quite sharing the excitement of the USA. The Nikkei (9447) is down 50 points and Korea down 10 points (0.67%). Shanghai (3348) is just about in the green, up 9 points (0.27%). The Sensex had closed higher at 17180.18 yesterday but faces an important resistance at 17200 today. Most markets are testing crucial resistances and it is to be seen whether they are able to break through into new, higher ground, or whether they will succumb to profit-taking.
Crude (77.53) recorded a high of 77.92 yesterday taking support from the weaker dollar. However, it has fallen from yesterday's high and is trading lower now. As mentioned earlier, Support is seen in 77-76.50 region a break below which might pull it down towards 75.50-00. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1165.00) tested the Resistance at 1175 yesterday. The weakness in dollar is keeping up the bullish sentiment intact. If 1175 holds, we might see a pull back towards 1140-20 in the coming days. A break above 1175 might target 1200.
Uncertainty and mixed feelings still seem to prevail in the market, with most currencies giving up a part of the gains they saw against the Dollar yesterday. The Euro (1.4950) continues to consolidate/ range trade between 1.48-50. The Aussie (0.9215) had risen to 0.9279 yesterday, closing in positive territory, and might be gathering itself for a rise towards 0.9330. The Pound (1.6570) is mixed, having dipped a bit from its overnight high near 1.6650.
Dollar-Yen (88.92) remains quiet between 88.50 and 89.20. A rise past 89.20 could target 90.00, though. The Euro-Yen Cross (132.90) has also slipped back a bit after having risen to 133.64 yesterday. Remember, importantly, that the 200-day MA (132.37) has held as Support last week despite two attempts to break it last week. This might be potentially bullish. Dollar-Swiss (1.0113) has bounced a bit from a low near 1.0070 yesterday, being essentially ranged between 1.0050 and 1.0200.
USD-SGD (1.3865) is also ranged, between 1.3850 and 1.3915. USD-KRW trades near 1155. The Won remains strong, but as with the other currencies, has not broken into new ground as yet. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.4650 yesterday and is expected to trade between 46.35-65 today.
3M USD LIBOR remained unchaged at 0.26%. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields are now quoting at 0.77% and 3.34% respectively.
09:00 GMT Oct GER IFO Business Expectations
09:00 GMT Oct GER IFO Business Situations
09:00 GMT Oct GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 92.6...Previous 91.9
01:30 GMT US GDP Q3 '09 (Pre)
...Expected 3.0%...Previous 3.5%
Oct US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 6.10 Mln...Previous 5.54 Mln
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