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Forex Blog - European Market Update: German IFO survey hits 15 month highs; European bourses shakes off initial concerns over financial sector (Trade the News)

Tuesday, November 24, 2009 5:57:00 AM

 European Market Update: German IFO survey hits 15 month highs; European bourses shakes off initial concerns over financial sector

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (MA) Malaysia Central Bank Interest rate maintains its overnight Rate at 2.00%; as expected
- (RU) Russian Central Bank cuts its Refi rate by 50bps to 9.0%; In line with views
-(FI) Finland Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.1%e
- (GE) Germany GDP SA Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -4.8% v -4.8%e;
GDP NSA Y/Y: -4.7% v -4.7%e
- (GE) German Q3 Final Private consumption: -0.9% v -0.4%e; Government Spending: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Imports: 5.0%e v 3.55e; Exports: 3.4% v 4.1%e
- (SZ) Swiss Oct UBS Consumption Indicator: 0.867 v 0.671 prior
- (FR) France Nov Business Confidence Indicator: 89 v 91e; Production Outlook: -9 v -9e; Own-Company Production: -3 v 1e
- (FR) French Oct Consumer Spending M/M: 1.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.3%e
- (SP) Spain Oct Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -4.2% v -3.1%e
- (SZ) Swiss Q3 Employment Level Y/Y: 0.2% v -0.8%e; 3.96M 3.94Me
- (NV) Netherlands Nov Producer Confidence: -5.6 v -6.5%e
- (SW) Sweden Oct PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.6%e
- (GE) Germany Nov IFO Business Climate: 93.9 v 92.5e (15 month high); Current Assessment: 89.1 v 88.0e; Expectations Survey: 98.9 v 97.3e
- (NO) Norway Q3 GDP Q/Q 0.9% v 0.8%e; Mainland
GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.8%e
- (UK) Q3 Total Business Investment Q/Q: -3.0% v -5.0%e; Y/Y: -21.7% v -22.9%e
- (UK) BBA Loans for House Purchase: 43.2K v 44Ke
- (SA) South Africa Q3 GDP Annualized: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.6%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Industrial New Orders M/M; 1.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -16.5% v -17.3%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Following a strong Monday session in which a three day downward trend was snapped, European markets gapped down in line with their Asian peers. Asian trading, specifically out of mainland
China, was broadly negative as rebuttals from financials regarding capital raise speculation failed to restore confidence. Commentary from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences supporting stronger capital controls fueled concern. Follow-through from this concern has hit the European financial sector with the large cap banks leading the downward trend. A notable stand out to this rotation has been Lloyds [LLOY.UK] that has traded positive after pricing the largest UK secondary offering of all time at 13.5B. On the back of concern out of China, mining, industrial and vehicle names sought to give back their gains from yesterday. Individual stand outs included Carrefour [CA.FR] after a bullish note from JPMorgan and Swatch [UHR.SZ] following a similar themed note from UBS. Better than expected German IFO business climate data at 4:00EST lifted markets and European bourses have trended off their opening lows into 5:30EST. Commentary from BoE's King through 5:00EST further rallied markets on the back of statements regarding asset price reaction to QE operations.

-In equities: Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Confirms terms of share placement: Proposes 1.34 for 1 rights issue of 36B new shares at 37p/share for expected proceeds of 13.5B (54% of market cap). || Aquarius Platinum [AQP.UK] Launches $250M 5 year convertible bond offering. || SSL [SSL.UK] Reports H1 Net 38M v 31Me, Pretax 51.9M v 47Me, Rev 391M v 388Me. || Vivendi [VIV.FR] Acquires 10% stake in Canal+ for 744M currently owned by TF1. ||

- Speakers: BOE's King commented in his quarterly inflation report to parliament that the
UK economy faced significant challenges ahead and still expected inflation to rise sharply in coming months to above target. He again noted that the depreciation of GBP currency would aid its economic. Inflation was likely to rise sharply in the coming months, from its current level of 1.5% to above the target of 2.0%. He conceded that powerful forces were continuing to restrain spending in the economy. Banks are actively trying to reduce their leverage. There is a long way to go in that process. Lower level of spending had opened up a significant margin of spare capacity in the economy and spare capacity would continue to act as a drag on inflation in the medium term. King added that he expected buoyant growth rate after recession. The rate of UK debt reduction depended on path of economy. He did not foresee an immediate risk to UK's AAA sovereign rating, however longer it takes for credible plan to reduce deficit the greater the risk to rating. The UK needs a credible plan to bring down deficit over the lifetime of parliament. Kong added that UK tax revenues were likely to be lower for up to a decade || BoE's Sentence commented that it was appropriate to slow rate of asset purchases and added there were signs of stabilization and recovery in UK economy || BoE's Posen stated that the BOE was coming to the end of large scale Quantitative easing measures but added there were no guarantee that QE measures were effective . If QE were ineffective there is a case to purchase private sector assets (non-Gilts). He noted that the lack of private assets made QE exit easier ||Indian Gov Advisor commented that the currency appreciation in the Rupee has been orderly to date and added that he did not see the level as cause for concern. The advisor did not expect to see strong measures to control capital inflows and the 2009/10 capital inflows are seen at a manageable level between $57-60B. The advisor commented that he expected stimulus measures to continue through 2009/10; could see some slowdown in 2010/11 period || German BDA employer's federation: Sees risk of acute broad risk of a credit crunch

- Currencies: Risk aversion crept back into the market as Asian equities slumped over capital raising fears helping the dollar and JPY firm against the European and commodity-related currencies. Comments from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Zhang Ming that China should make its capital controls stronger to deal with speculative inflows related to low US interest rates and comments from bank of China [3988.HK] that its was studying different ways for capital raise sent the Shanghai Composite lower by 3.5% in the session. The EUR/USD tested below the 1.49 handle as a series of Euro sell-stops were elected ahead of the European morning. However, the initial concerns over the financial sector receded following the improvement in the German November Ifo survey, which increased to 93.9 from 92.0 in October for a 15 month high. The EUR/USD managed to regain most of its session losses and probed back towards the mid 1.49 area as the NY morning approached. Risk appetite also was aided by BOE's King comment that he was not surprised by recent moves in asset prices, adding that it was not helpful to call every move in asset prices a bubble. Spot gold and oil recovered
-The GBP was lagging the European currencies as the session wore on. The BOE's King again BoE Governor King reiterated commented that the depreciation of sterling would help boost economic demand. GBP/USD tested the 1.6500 while EUR/GBP probed the 0.9050 area. The Russian Central bank continued its easing mode and cited that the Ruble appreciation was a factor in the rate cut today.

- Fixed Income: Government bonds opened bid across the curve this morning in
Europe only to move steadily lower as the session progressed. A 15 month high in the IFO Survey of expectations got the ball rolling, while a number of comments from the BoE's King that were bond negative or at least risk supportive, added further pressure. King noted that the longer it takes for the government to come up with a credible fiscal plan, the greater the risk to the UK's credit rating, and consistent with a number of comments from FOMC members last week, King noted that he was not surprised by recent moves in asset prices. But relatively strong 13y Gilt auction has helped stem the tide and mving into the NY morning Bunds and Gilts remain in positive territory with Treasuries broadly unchanged. Greek debt remains under pressure with 10y yield spreads widening out to near 4 month highs at Bunds +173bps. Corporate issuance picked up with offerings from Telefonica, Volkswagon and Vivendi all in the works . Ahead of the $42B auction, the new 5y notes have traded within a 2bps range in the when issued market overnight, to yield 2.20% at the time of writing.

- In the papers: UK telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard article noting that S&P gave warning that most global bank were still unsafe as they lack sufficient capital to cover trading and investment exposure, risking further downgrades over the next 18 months unless they move swiftly to beef up their defenses. Every single bank in
Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P's list of 45 global lenders fails the 8% safety level under the agency's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. Most fall woefully short
-WSJ: HSBC has told retail clients to remove their gold holdings from its vault located under the firm's tower in
New York City. HSBC is trying to make room for the gold holdings of its institutional clients.

***Notes:
- German IFO survey hits a 15 month high
- BOE's King: not surprised by recent moves in asset prices
- Rising concerns over banks renewed funding needs causing some trimming in risk appetite.
- Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Zhang Ming: China should make its capital controls stronger to deal with speculative inflows related to low US interest rates
- Standard & Poor's has given warning that nearly all of the world's big banks lack sufficient capital to cover trading and investment exposure, risking further downgrades over the next 18 months unless they move swiftly to beef up their defenses
- Traders noting that they 'can just feel market liquidity getting thinner".

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Current Account: -$2.5Be v -$2.3B prior; Foreign Investment: $1.7Be v $1.8B prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales: No estimate versus -0.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Annualized: 2.8%e v 3.5% prior; Personal Consumption: 3.2%e v 3.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP price Index: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales: No estimate versus +1.8% prior
- 9:00 (US) Sept S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y: -13.0%e v -14.2% prior; Home price index: 146.90e v 146.00 prior
- 9:00 (US) S&P Case Shiller Q3 House price index Y/Y: -10.3%e v -14.9% prior; Index: No est v 132.6 prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Business Confidence: -13.0e v -14.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Consumer Confidence: 47.5e v 47.7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 8e v 7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Q3 House Price Purchase Index Q/Q: 0.3%e v -0.7% prior
- 10:00 (EU) ECB's Mersch
- 13:00 (US) Treasury's 5-year $42B note auction
- 14:00 (US) Minutes of FOMC Nov 4th policy meeting
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: -$1.3Be v -$1.1B prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Oct Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.4% prior
- 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

 

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