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Tuesday November 24, 2009 - 12:36:30 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 24/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 24, 2009
Free Webinar Today on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis
Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST
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The US Census Bureau will release the Monthly New Home Sales Report tomorrow (Nov 25th).
The report helps analyze the strength of the US housing market, and the
economy as a whole, by measuring the annualized number of new
residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts expect last monthâ€™s measure of 402.00K to rise to 408.00K.
Although it broke the resistance at 1.4952, The
Euro was unable to surpass 1.50. The sharp drop that followed made
1.4875 the most important support for the short-term. This support,
could reverse this drop, and initiate a rising move. But if it is
broken, the drop coming from 1.4997 will continue, targeting 1.4820
first, and then the most important support for the time being at
1.4786. On the other hand, short-term resistance is 1.4951, and if it
is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to
reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect
1.5082 for the first time this year.
â€¢ 1.4875: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€¢ 1.4820: November 13th low.
â€¢ 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
â€¢ 1.4951: short-term resistance.
â€¢ 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
â€¢ 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
Dollar-Yen moved in a tight range again, but it dropped to 88.54 this
morning which is the same level that stopped yesterday's drop! The down
movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a
wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to
the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could
push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be
right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 88.97 where there
is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move
targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper
limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we
could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support
at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant
support before the last 15 years low 87.10
â€¢ 88.56: short-term support.
â€¢ 88.13: Oct 13th low.
â€¢ 87.10: Jan 12th low.
â€¢ 88.97: the moving average SMA100.
â€¢ 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
â€¢ 90.73: intraday top.
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All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
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