Stock Markets Flat to Higher Ahead of U.S. GDP Report
equity markets are trading flat to higher ahead of this morningâ€™s U.S. 3rd
Quarter GDP Report.Expectations are for
the report to show a decrease in the economy from 3.5% to 2.8%.A wider trade gap and faltering consumer
spending are cited as the main reasons behind the decline.
Yesterday the equity markets weakened throughout the day
after a quick rally to slightly below the high for the year at 1112.25.Better than expected U.S. Existing Home Sales
were cited as the main reason behind the decline.Traders dumped higher yielding assets as the
Dollar rose following the report.
Treasury futures are trading slightly better this morning as
traders square up yesterdayâ€™s short-positions ahead of todayâ€™s GDP number.T-Bonds and T-Notes are expected to remain
stable with a slight bias to the upside as long as the Fed continues to preach
that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period of time.A strong rise in the equity markets is likely
to limit gains.
The Dollar is trading slightly better as traders await this
3rd Quarter GDP Report.The Forex
markets are reversing yesterdayâ€™s gains.Risk aversion seems to be back in the market as higher yielding assets
are feeling downside pressure.Thin
volume in this holiday shortened weak is contributing to the weakness in
foreign currencies along with liquidation ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving
The December Euro is trading slightly better while the
Dollar is strengthening versus all others.The Euro is up because German business confidence increased more than
economists forecast to a 15-month high in November.
This report suggests that the German economy may start to
show some solid gains next year.Manufacturers are replenishing inventories and exports are
expanding.This is good news because
many investors thought the Euro Zone exports would show a decline after the
rise to $1.5000 in the Euro.All of this
news points toward expansion during the fourth quarter.
Skeptics still believe the economy is poised to weaken
further.They attribute the gains in the
economy to government stimulus.Many
think the economy will falter once stimulus measures are removed.They cite the possibility of weaker consumer
spending and slower exports as the main reasons why the economy will struggle
in the future.The main reason for the
decline in exports will be the high priced Euro.
December Gold is trading higher but below yesterdayâ€™s record
high.A stronger Dollar is helping to
limit gains.Strong central bank buying
is providing the support.Traders should
continue to watch December Silver and January Platinum for divergence signals.
January Crude Oil is called slightly better.Weaker equity markets and a stronger Dollar
should put pressure on the energy complex.Supply/Demand factors still point to a bearish scenario.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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