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Wednesday November 25, 2009 - 12:00:55 GMT
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European Market Update: USD continues to be vulnerable following FOMC minutes and rising risk appetite; India's central bank reportedly mulling another purchase of 200 metric tons of gold purchases

Wednesday, November 25, 2009 5:58:17 AM

 European Market Update: USD continues to be vulnerable following FOMC minutes and rising risk appetite; India's central bank reportedly mulling another purchase of 200 metric tons of gold purchases from IMF

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (GE) German GFK Consumer Confidence survey: 3.7 v 4.0e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Business Confidence: -4.8 v -7.1% prior, Consumer Confidence: -8.0 v -14.3 prior; Consumer & Business Confidence: -5.4 v -8.5 prior
- (SP) Spain Sept Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -4.2% v -6.6% prior; Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -14.3% v-14.9% prior
- (TU) Turkey Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -8.4% v -8.8% prior
- (SW) Swedish Nov Consumer Confidence: 11.4 v 8.5e; Econ Tendency survey: 98.8 v 95.8e; Manuf Confidence: -10 v -12e
- (IT) Italian Nov Consumer Confidence: 112.8 v 111.5e
- (NO) Norway Sept AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.3%e
- (IT) Italian Sep Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v - 2.9%e
- (PD) Polish Oct Retail Sales M/M: 3.9% v 4.5%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3%e
- (PD) Poland Unemployment Rate: 11.1% v 11.0%e
- (UK) Q3 Prelim GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%; Y/Y: -5.1% v -5.1%e
- (UK) Q3 Preliminary Exports: 0.5% v 1.4%e; Imports: 1.3% v 2.0%e; Gov't Spending: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Private Consumption: 0.0% v -0.2%e
- (UK) Sept Index of Services Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (SA) South Africa Oct
CPI (all items) M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.9%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Consumer Confidence: 115.5 v 114.5 prior
- (SA) South Africa Q4 BER Business Confidence: 28 v 25e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- European equity markets opened at session highs on the rebound from yesterday's action. Continued dollar weakness following the F
OMC minutes has led to new highs in commodities and new lows in the USD Index. These moves extend the multi-week trend pushing minerals, miners and industrials higher. Despite continued speculation of Chinese capital requirement alterations, Asian markets printed a positive session furthering equity appetite in the European morning. The one year anniversary of Mumbai's hotel attack and siege was reflected in India with the SENSEX up over 9,000 points in the year period, closing at 17198.95. Final FY09 figures out of Porsche [PAH3.GE] confirmed a second consecutive year of loss making figures and sent shares of VW [VOW.GE] lower. German bank Commerzbank [CBK.GE] held its EGM, confirming 2012 targets and integration operations with Dresdner. Equity markets halted a downward slide at 4:30EST with the UK Q3 prelim release reading that was in line with expectations (though still showing the state in continued recession). Trading volumes have been depressed through the session ahead of the holiday in the US.

-In equities: LSE [LSE.UK] Reports H1 Net 49M v 52Me, Rev 311M v 312Me. Compass Group [CPG.UK] Reports FY09 pretax 773M v 768Me, Rev 13.4B v 13.5Be. Bayer [BAYN.GE]: To increase polycarbonate operations in
India; enters into JV with Malibu Plastica. Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] Reports H1 Net 39M v 35Me, Rev 362M v 358Me. France Telecom [FTE.FR] To merge Orange mobile Switzerland operations with Sunrise operated TDC. Nicox [COX.FR] Announces 70M (19% of market cap) secondary offering; rights issue at placement price of 3.49/share. Ericsson [ERICB.SW] To Acquire Nortel's North American GSM Business with Kapsch.

- In speakers: Russian Central Bank Ulyukayev commented that the CBR needs to continue lowering interest rates to curb the carry trade. He noted that he was more concerned about currency volatility than actual levels and plans to increase currency interventions to limit volatility. Ulyukayev added that the CBR sees no inflationary risks in H1 2010 and believes next year's inflation could be much lower than 9%. South Korea Fin Min Yoon forecasted 2010
GDP grow of 4%, up from flat this year. The ministry remains optimistic yet cautious on recovery outlook, although it is too early for an exit strategy given that the economy is not on a firm footing. Premature exit strategy from special measures might cause prolonged economic slowdown. The Indonesian Central Bank's Budi Mulya commented that the rupiah remains in line with fundamentals and said he would try to avoid volatility in currency markets. In addition, the central bank said it would not change stance regarding inflows of funds. French Budget Minister Woerth commented in a newspaper interview that French 2010 borrowing could exceed €175B as France could borrow an additional €22B without compromising its credibility. He estated that France was against any revision in the Maastrict Stability Pact. Deficit to be reduced by 1.5 percentage points of GDP if economic recovery is confirmed with ongoing deficit cuts of 1 point needed.

- In currencies: The greenback was modestly softer against the majors and commodity related pairs following yesterday's F
OMC minutes, which appeared to pave the way for additional weakness. The dollar was testing some key technical levels as thin holiday conditions set in. On Tuesday, the Fed described the dollar's decline as orderly, which dealers took as a hint for the trend to continue. Press speculation that India's central bank could purchase another 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF helped to re-enforce the higher commodity/weaker dollar trend. Spot gold hit fresh all-time highs above the $1,180/oz level. EUR/USD finally managed to move above the 1.50 handle and was approaching fresh 15-month highs. USD/CHF was attempting the bust below the parity level for the first time since April 2008. USD/JPY moved below the 88 level, which was long suggested to hold 'good bids' from the Japanese post office. Lots of dealer commentary on the Chinese yuan and future trends. Trichet, Juncker, and Almunia off to China this weekend to discuss economic and financial issues.

- Fixed Income: Gilts have outperformed after UK Q3 GDP was revised slightly upwards, in line with expectations but well short of the whispers ahead of the official release. Subsequent buying in the short end and belly has sent the yield curve steeper but it's a different story on the continent, with Germany in bear flattening mode as speculation mounts over some form of spread on the ECB's Dec 16th 12 month repo operation. With banks in the perhipery generally perceived as chief beneficiaries of the ECB's largesse, yield spreads are wider versus the core, with the Greek 10y hitting fresh 5 month highs above 180bps and Italy 4bps wider at 80bps.
Germany sold 4.1B in the second tap of the Oct 2014 5y Bobl with strong results. Ahead of the last leg of the Treasury's mammoth week of supply the question is whether yesterday's stellar performance in 5s can be repeated with liquidity expected to be thing as markets move into holiday mode . Price action in Europe suggests there are some questions. The new 7s are trading at about a 4bps roll over the existing notes in the when issued market and the benchmark 10y note is +1.4bps at 3.32%. In coprorates, Marks and Spencer launched a 10y GBP denominated issue, benchmark size.

- In Energy:
Kuwait might seek to switch its benchmark for pricing oil sold in the US to Argus Sour Crude index from the Platt's West Texas Intermediate index. The move would follow a similar action by Saudi Arabia. According to a Kuwait oil official the country does not think the West Texas Intermediate index represents the market. ||Chinese press noting that due to shortages China might import at least 700M cubic meters of gas

-In the papers: India's Central bank (RBI) could consider buying the remains 201.3 metric tons of gold from the IMF according to an article found in the Financial Chronicle. Article noted that
India was open to buying more and may purchase the remaining 201.3 metric tons from the fund . Any additional purchase would depend on successful pitching by the central bank . There have been speculation that central banks would increase their gold holdings. In early Nov, the IMF disclosed that the Reserve Bank of India purchased 200 metric tons of gold for $6.7B. Mauritius recently purchased 2 tons for $71.7M Telegraph: China steps up efforts to halt explosive growth in credit. Orders banks to raise capital or face lending sanctions.

***Notes:
- Risk appetite continues in thinning market conditions
- IMF: Half of banks losses might be unknown. Euro "probably a bit too strong".

***Looking Ahead:
- (PD) Poland Central Bank interest rate decision: No change expected in the base rate of 3.50%
- 7:00 (US) MBA mortgage applications w/e nov 20th: No est v -2.5% prior
- 7;30 (BR) Brazil Oct Total Outstanding Loans: No est v $1.3B prior; Private bank Lending: No est v $797M prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Personal Income: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior, Personal Spending: 0.5%e v -0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.3% prior, PCE Deflator Y/Y: 0.1%e v -0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Durable Goods Orders: 0.5%e v 1.4% prior, Ex transportations: 0.7%e v 1.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Nov 21st: 500Ke v 505K prior, Continuing claims: 5.565Me v 5.611M prior
- 10 :00 (US) Nov Final U of Michigan confidence: 67.0e v 66.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct New Home Sales: 404Ke v 402K prior, M/M: 0.4%e v -3.6% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Q3 Current Account: -$2.4Be v $454M prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Q3 GDP Y/Y: -3.7%e v -7.6% prior

 

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