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Thursday November 26, 2009 - 11:13:22 GMT
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European Market Update: Dollar tries to regain composure aided by rumors and official rhetoric coupled with renewed jitters over sovereign stress (Trade the News)

Thursday, November 26, 2009 5:59:43 AM

 European Market Update: Dollar tries to regain composure aided by rumors and official rhetoric coupled with renewed jitters over sovereign stress


- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves: $443.8B v $441.7B prior
- (TT) Taiwan Q3 GDP - constant prices Y/Y: -2.6%e v -7.5% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI- Saxony M/M: -0.1% v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.3% v -0.1% prior
- (HU) Hungary Oct Unemployment: 10.4% v 10.5e
- (SP) Spanish Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: -3.9% v -3.4% prior, Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.7% v -2.4%e
- (SW) Swedish Oct Trade Balance (SEK): 5.1B v 9.5Be
- (SW) Swedish Oct Household lending: 8.6% v 8.2% prior
- (DE) Danish Oct Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.3%e
- (IT) Italian Nov Business Confidence: 78.8v 78.0e; Retailers Confidence General: 102.0 v 93.8 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Oct Trade Balance (HKD): -19.2B v -25.2Be; Export Y/Y: -13.1% v -13.0%e; Imports Y/Y: -10.7% v -9.0%e
- (GE) German Nov CPI - North Rhine- Westphalia: -0.2% v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI - Hesse M/M: -0.1% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 0.3% v -0.1% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI - Brandenburg M/M: -0.1% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 0.2% v -0.2% prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Oct M3 Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.8%e, 3-Month Avg: 1.6% v 1.7%e
- (IT) Italian Oct Trade Balance non EU: 117M v 2.35Be
- (NO) Norway Nov Unemployment Rate: 2.6% v 2.6%e
- (NO) Norway Q3 Manufacturing Wage Index: 0.2 v 0.8% prior
- (IC) Iceland Nov CPI M/M: 0.7% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.6% v 9.7% prior
- (SA) South Africa Oct PPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.1%e
- (BR) Brazil Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.6%e ]
- (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e
- (UK) CBI Quarterly Distributive Trades: +13 v +8prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI - Bavaria M/M: -0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0% prior

- Equities: Concerns over Dubai's debt prompted some risk aversion sentiment throughout the session. Equities were broadly softer as any stock with anything sovereign stress related moving lower. Dealers concede that thinning market conditions in the weeks ahead suggest increased volatility into year-end.
Dubai's Department of Finance noted on Wednesday that Dubai World, with $59 B of liabilities, was seeking to delay debt payments. The question was who had such exposure to the situation. Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Spokesperson noted that its Calyon unit had some exposure to Dubai world was not overly concerned. A stronger Japanese Yen currency sent the Asian equities lower and European bourses followed suit as the FTSE, DAX CAC and Euro Stoxx opened the session down over 1% in early trading. Losses continues with the major exchanges down over 2% before consolidating the losses.

-Individual stocks: EADs [EAD.FR] Die Weld article noted that the Airbus A400M order might cost 5.5B extra. Article noted that seven nations ordering the plane are in talks with Airbus about mitigating the rising costs noting that the cost for 180 aircraft might be 25% more then envisaged as delivery delays rises production costs with initial deliveries for the A440M are scheduled for 2013, a delay of three years || Mitchells & Butlers [MAB.UK] Reported FY pretax 134M above the 122M estimate. Revenues were 1.98B compared to the 1.9B consensus. The 2009 like-for-like sales was up 1.6. The outlook was clouded especially due to the expected
U.K. general election due next year, and any possible tax rises a new Chancellor of the Exchequer might introduce. || EDF Energies Nouvelles [EEN.FR] Announced framework agreement with REpower to supply turbines in China. These projects currently under development are due to be commissioned between year-end 2011 and year-end 2015, subject to the delivery of all the permits relevant for their construction || Daily Mail [DMGO.UK] Reported FY Pretax 201M above estimates of 150Me. Revenues were 2.1B and in-line with consensus estimates of 2.1Be. All divisions except regional newspaper unit Northcliffe Media kept or increased profit margins on cost cuts and currency effects. || Koninklijke Philips Electronica [PHIA.NV] Disclosed that it has received a statement of objections from EU relating to violation of competition rules in the CRT industry. The company noted that it would study statement of objections || Tata Steel [TATA.IN] Reported Q2 Net loss of INR27B missing estimate for a Loss INR12B. Revenues came in at INR253B versus INR254B estimates. H1 steel sales came in at 2.8M tons compared to year-ago levels of 2.4M tons || BEA Systems [BA.UK] Began consultation on 640 job losses (less than 1% of workforce) || BASF [BAS.GE: Reportedly in discussions to form styrene JV as prelude to exiting the market with negotiations in the early stages and may be prolonged by antitrust concerns

- Speakers: Japan MOF Noda stated that he had no comment on any potential currency intervention for the JPY. He did concede that stability in FX was desirable || Japanese Cabinet spokesperson Hirano: Watching forex moves carefully, acknowledges that government may be asked to respond to rising JPY. A sharp appreciation of JPY would impact
Japan's economy. He added that the Gov't had not discussed intervention with Japan's MoF Fujii at this time || Japan Fin Min Fujii reiterated support for a strong USD but would not comment on any possible joint currency operation after the USD/JPY pair tested 14-year lows of 86.30 || Japanese PM Hatoyama stated that the country would take steps to avoid double dip recession. He added that it was only natural for Finance Ministry to consider steps on currencies || ECB's Weber: Must consider exit strategies; should not be too optimistic about outlook. Central bank and government support (monetary and fiscal impulse) cannot be increased further and was no substitute for a self-sustaining recovery ||Poland Central Banker Czekaj commented that Polish interest rates could be on hold through 2010 as inflation could fall below 2.5%. He noted that the Zloty currency likely show a tendency to appreciate as it is connected with growth. He noted that EUR/PLN between 3.8 to 4.0 level would not harm Polish exporters (current levels of about 4.10). He forecasts Q3 GDP growth between 1.0%-1.5% compared analyst estimates of 1.5%. || Polish Central Bank's Wasilewska-Trenkner commented that the next MPC might need to hike rates in first half of next year to curb inflation|| Swedish central bank (Riksbank) stated that the country'sbanks have sufficient capital to withstand larger losses than its main scenario, recession appears to have bottomed out. It saw loan losses of SEK155B for the period of 2009-2011. Largest losses are still expected to come from the banking activities in Baltic countries || UK Water regulator OFWAT provideed details of guideline recommendations. The average bill in England and Wales remains broadly flat until 2015. The regulator's decision would see more than 22B invested in maintaining and improving services to consumers

- Currencies: The dollar managed to compose itself from a recent decline in both sentiment and price levels as the European morning approached aided by verbal support, intervention rumors and renewed debt default concerns. The USD/JPY declined to a 14-year low when it tested 86.30 but managed to retest the 87 handle as Japanese Government and ministry officials took notice of the JPY's appreciation and its potential to harm the fragile Japanese economic recovery. Aiding the overall dollar tone was dealer chatter that the SNB was 'seen' on the interbank dealing machines and bidding for dollars
USDCHF pair sent the pair moving from 0.9920 to test above 1.0040 level. As usual the Swiss Central Bank (SNB) declined to comment on any intervention rumors, which is its standard policy. The jitters in the JPY and CHF pairs paved the way for the dollar to advanced against the Euro and GBP. Commodities were softer on the retracement in the dollar. Spot gold moved off its all-time highs of $1,195/oz to dip some $10 while crude declined by $1.00 to test below the $77/barrel.

- Fixed Income: Government bonds are soaring this morning in
Europe with mounting concerns over a sovereign default in the middle east. The proposed restructuring of Dubai World has brought into question up to $80B worth of debt linked to the parent emirate and re-ignited jitters over financial sector exposure to bad paper. CDS spreads on Dubai have been quoted as wide as 570bps, a staggering 130bps wider on the session. Volumes in Bunds are decent despite thanksgiving with over 300k contracts printed as we go to press. The 10y Bund yield is at its lowest level since early October at around 3.20% and the 10yr Gilt is below 3.60% for the first time in over a month. Greek and Irish banks are also under pressure with continued rumblings of a spread on the ECB's upcoming 12 month repo operation and typically hawkish comments from the ECB's Weber did little to counter expectations . The Greek 10y has been seen as wide as Bunds +200bps while the Irish 10y is 12bps wider on the day at 162bps.
-US market holiday
-Dubai debt concern brings bad default risk

***Looking Ahead:
- (GE) German Nov CPI - Baden Wuerttemburg M/M: % v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.1% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI-EU Harmonized M/M: 0.05e v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.5%e v -0.1% prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Net Debt % of GDP: 44.7%e v 44.9% prior
- 11:00 (IC) Iceland Q3 Current Account: No est v -46B prior
- 12:00 (FR) French Oct Total Jobseekers: No Est v 2.574M prior, Net Change: 16.5Ke v 21.6K prior


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