Investors retreated from risk trades
last night, the catalyst being
the day-old news of Dubai World's bond default (suggesting investor sentiment
at these elevated levels is fragile). Dubai World is a state owned company with
$59 billion in debt, and the ripple effect has extended to Dubai's banks (S&P placing four on negative
watch), emerging market credit default swaps, UK banks which may be exposed, and even major
equities and currencies. S&P futures (US holiday) are down 2.2%, most European
indices fell over 3%, and Shanghai lost 3.6% (in the second large outside down day this week). Gold
nudged to a fresh high, but most commodities fared poorly, copper making a
bearish outside down day. European government bonds were in demand with the US closed, 10yr EU yields moving around 10bp
US dollars were in demand amid the
credit concerns, the DXY up around 0.7%. EUR reversed all of its
previous day's gains, falling from 1.5150 to below 1.5000 and currently resting
just above. The riskier currencies fared worst. USD/CAD moved from
1.0450 to 1.0620, and ZAR (a good emerging currency barometer) lost 2.3%, both
forming bearish outside reversals. JPY stood its ground at 86.50 though,
holding yesterday's important break below 87.00.
The down-under currencies performed
similarly to the rand. AUD continued its slide post yesterday's weaker
CAPEX report, falling to just under 0.9100.
NZD followed suit to 0.7130. The AUD/NZD cross
firmed slightly to 1.2775 in line with the move to risk aversion.
No US data due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Bank of Japan minutes to October 30 meeting. As this is the meeting at which the six monthly
risk assessment and forecasts are discussed, there is more meat in this
document than in most minutes. The Board assesses that risks to the outlook are
more balanced now than six months previous - but even so, they are wary of a
balance sheet led weakening of the US and European economies blowing back on
Japan. What they do not see any risk of is an end to deflation on a two year
horizon. This was also the meeting where the decision to withdraw from CP
purchases was made, with market distorting impacts seemingly elevated in the
Eurozone Oct money supply growth
decelerated further from 1.8% yr to 0.3% yr, and growth in credit to the private sector declined by 0.8% yr.
Despite evidence of a bounce in industrial activity from the global
trade-driven crash a year ago, it is clear that the banking system remains
impaired and credit demand is very weak - key factors that will hamper European
German CPI fell 0.2% in November, weaker than market expectations. Higher fuel
prices were more than offset by subdued price pressures elsewhere. Base effects
saw annual inflation rise from 0% to 0.3%, as comparisons turn from last year's
oil price spike to the subsequent collapse.
UK CBI retail trade index saw reported sales rise
from 8 to 13 in November, the
highest in two years. Sales were seen as slightly below par for this time of
year, as opposed to being substantially lower for most of this year. The
separate quarterly survey showed a turn to net optimism (from -2 to 13) and a
slower decline in employment (from -41 to -27).
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today:
The smoke from the Dubai wreckage has yet to clear, so caution reins
today. AUD may see some support at 0.9060. NZD's line of defense is 0.7080, a
break of which would be bearish for the medium term.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.