Stable U.S. Equity Markets Help Limit Dollar Gains
Overnight the Dollar climbed sharply higher as global
investors dumped stocks and commodities on concerns that Dubai Worldâ€™s debt
problems would escalate into a worldwide credit crisis similar to the one the U.S. faced when
Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Fear raced through the global investment
community, making lower-yielding assets such as the Dollar and the Yen more
attractive.The situation in Dubai began to break late Wednesday night and spilled over
into Thursday while U.S.
markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The U.S. Dollar gave back over 50% of its early morning
gains as investors took profits after a strong two-day rise.The inability to break equity markets lower
after the opening helped drive up demand for higher risk assets.Investors began selling the Dollar after it
became clear that there would be no panic selling of higher risk assets.
Investors began to liquidate higher risk assets when the
largest corporate entity in Dubai
asked creditors for a six-month postponement of $60 billion in debt
payments.This action by the Dubai entity raised
concerns that other emerging market entities may be overextended in debt which
could lead to even more liquidation.
Global financial markets took a huge hit as traders feared
that banks were facing major exposure to Dubai Worldâ€™s mounting debt issues.
equity markets opened and were able to hold their lows, profit-takers hit the
Dollar and the foreign currency markets posted a strong recovery from their
Investors may trade a little tentatively early next week as
they continue to wait and see how the Dubai
situation unfolds.Some feel that the
situation will be settled locally.Others feel the debt problems are more widespread than initially
The EUR USD traded lower but well off its low at
1.4828.The main range is 1.4625 to
1.5144.Todayâ€™s low stopped at the .618
retracement level of this range at 1.4823.
The GBP USD fell sharply this morning after it was reported
that U.K. banks had exposure
debt.This weakness quickly dissipated
when the Royal Bank of Scotland
downplayed its risk exposure.The
British Pound found support at a 50% price level at 1.6293.Additional support came from two main bottoms
at 1.6261 and 1.6250.
The USD JPY plunged to a 14-year low this morning at
84.83.Throughout the day, however, this
market mounted a strong recovery, as equity markets failed to follow-through to
The strong recovery in equity and crude oil prices helped to
boost the Canadian Dollar off of its low. The main trend in the USD CAD turned
up overnight, but the lack of follow-through to the upside indicates it was
most likely short-covering rather than new buying.
The AUD USD turned the main trend down after the hard
sell-off overnight.The inability to
break the U.S. equity
markets triggered a huge short-covering rally in the Aussie throughout the New York session.Although this market may continue its rally
early next week, trader confidence in buying higher yielding assets may curtail
The NZD USD traded under pressure this morning but a
short-covering rally throughout the day helped to cut the losses. Traders are
taking a â€śwait-and-seeâ€ť approach into the week-end as they assess the situation
in Dubai.It is possible that appetite for risk may be
diminished for a while as this weekâ€™s events may have shaken investor
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