Monday November 30, 2009 - 03:40:42 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Nov-2009 - 0339 GMT
Last week, Dubai debt rescheduling worries applied brakes to the recovery rally in most of the markets. These concerns have however subsided and most of the markets have risen back to the "pre-Dubai debt problem" levels.
The Dow rose 2% early last week and thereafter gave up all the gains by the end of the weeek to close flat. US NFP is due this week on Friday. There's Support on Dow at 10000.
Today most of the Asian indices are rejoicing. The Nikkei (9298.93) is trading 2.39% higher, Shanghai (3139.22) is 1.4% higher, Hang Seng (21765.31) is up over 3%. Most of these indices had taken a sharp hit last week. The Shanghai had corrected over 6.5% and the Nikkei had corrected nearly 4.5% last week. The Sensex, too, had corrected nearly 2.3% last week. On Friday, the equity markets in India saw a huge sell-off as the Sensex fell nearly 4% only to recover and close 1.4% lower over Thursday.
The Sensex (16632.01) may take cues from the other Asian indices and open higher. It may go on to test 17500 once again this week.
Crude (76.51) fell sharply on Friday as Dubai debt concerns strengthed the dollar. However it has risen after testing the Trendline Support at 72.50 and is now trading higher. The downside pressure on the Crude price is expected to continue until we get a clear picture on the Dubai situation. Immediate Support is seen at 74 and Resistance is at 79.50. To see the Trendline Support on the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1175.70) has risen from Friday's low of 1130.10 as the dollar gave back some its gains. The uptrend is still intact and we might expect a rise towards 1200 in the coming days. Support is seen in 1140-20 region.
The Euro (1.5061) is keeping up the uptrend intact as the Trendline Support at 1.4820 has held very well on the sharp fall seen on Friday. Dollar-Yen (86.67), though has risen from Friday's low of 84.81, Significant Resistance in 87.10-50 region is keeping the pressure on the downside. The Euro-Yen Cross has taken support from the rise in Euro and is now trading near the Resistance in 130.85-131.00 region a strong break above which might see 132.00-50 on the upside today.
The Aussie (0.9174) has also risen and is keeping the hopes of the overall uptrend alive. 0.9220 is the significant immediate Resistance seen for Aussie. Pound might test the Resistance 1.6670 today. Support is seen at 1.6470. Swiss is keeping up the downtrend intact and we might see further dip towards 0.9900-0.9850 over the next few days.
The Korean-Won (1160.60) is being supported by Bank of Korea at 1160. Dollar-Ruppee has closed at 46.65/66 on Friday.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.26%. The yields on US Treasuries had come down sharply last week. The 2Y and 10Y yields have dropped 4 and 14 bps last week and are currently quoting near 0.69% and 3.23% respectively.
11:00 GMT IN GDP Q2'09-'10
01:30 GMT CA GDP
...Expected 0.4%...Previous -0.1%
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