European Market Update: JPY maintains recent price range as double-talk mires effectiveness of verbal intervention measures; Initial euphoria over Dubai fades (Trade the News)
Monday, November 30, 2009
European Market Update: JPY maintains recent price range as double-talk mires effectiveness of verbal intervention measures; Initial euphoria over Dubai fades
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (TH) Thailand Oct Current Account Balance: $2.2 v $1.5Be; Overall Trade Balance: $1.7B v $2.6B prior - (TH) Thailand Oct Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0%e - (SP) Spain Sept Total Housing Permits M/M: 59.7% v -53.3% prior; Y/Y: -41.7% v -45.3% prior - (FR) France Oct Producer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -6.6% v -7.3%e - (HU) Hungary Oct Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.2%e - (CZ) Czech Oct Preliminary Industrial Output Y/Y: -7.3% v -8.0%e - (SP) Spain Sept Current Account: -4.4B v -3.2B prior - (SW) Sweden Sept Non-Manuel Wages: 2.7% v 2.7% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Oct Gov't Monthly Budget (HKD): 8.0B v -14.3B prior - (PD) Polish Q3 GDP: 1.7% v 1.5%e - (IT) Italy Oct PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -6.1% v -6.0%e - (IC) Iceland Oct Final Trade Balance (ISK): 16.3B v 16.4B prior - (NO) Norway - Oct Retail Sales Volume M/M: 2.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 1.9%e - (NO) Norway Oct Credit Indicator Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.3% prior - (UK) Oct Net Consumer Credit: -0.6B v -0.2Be; Net Lending: 0.9B v 1.0Be - (UK) Oct Mortgage Approvals: 57.3K v 57.0Ke - (UK) Oct Final M4 Money Supply M/M: % v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: % v 11.0% prior - (IT) Italy Nov Preliminary CPI (NIC incl tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e - (IT) Italy Nov Preliminary CPI - EU harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.4%e - (GR) Greek Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.5% v -3.1% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Markets entered a full trading week ready to digest last week's news and credit fears on a positive tone. This outlook was quickly reversed following commentary from Nahkeel that in a vague statement asked for trading suspension of its Sukuk listed bonds. Negative equity sentiment was furthered by formal announcements from the Irish banking sector regarding participation figures in the NAMA program. Bank of Ireland [BKIR.IR] announcing losses of up to 3.4B on the 16B, while Allied Irish [ALBK.IR] announced plans to park up to 24.2B. Positive first calls on European bourses were quickly surrendered as markets again turned negative. Sector weakness included financials (linked to Dubai), auto names and utilities. Into 5:30EST, markets continued to trend downward despite some positive data points out of Poland and the Euro zone.
-In individual equities: Dubai World's Nahkeel unit requests suspension of trading in all three listed Sukuk bonds on Dubai Bourse. || Bank of Ireland [BKIR.IR] Confirms Intended Participation in NAMA; Could be required to transfer up to 16B of eligible bank assets. || Allied Irish Bank [ALBK.IR] Confirms proposed participation in NAMA; Estimates that NAMA will acquire from AIB land 24.2B. || Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] Reports Final FY09 Rev 9.3B v 9.3Be; Announces new Group Financial Officer. || Strabag [STR.AS] Reports Q3 Net 126M v 126Me, Rev 3.8B v 3.7Be. || ING [INGA.NV] Closes sale of Australian and New Zealand insurance business. ||
- Speakers: Japanese Strategy Min Kan commented that the Japanese Govt have agreed to measures to curb Yen appreciation and would cooperate with BoJ as much as possible || Japanese PM Hatoyama stated that the Gov't should act "swiftly" in response to JPY appreciation. He noted that fears over a double-dip recession have not dissipated and would remain cautious over Dubai credit situation || Japan Banking Minister Kamei commented that the BoJ must consider if there are additional ways to ease policy further and implied that sole currency intervention by BoJ unlikely to be effective ||China Premier Wen commented that China did not seek trade surplus beyond reasonable level. He noted that China sought to increase imports from Europe and reiterated that both China and EU should avoid all forms of protectionism. Wen expressed hope for more high-tech sales from Europe || Polish Central Bank's Czekaj commented that the Q3 GDP data was positive but hesitant to draw 'far-reaching' conclusions from data. He did guide Q4 GDP in range between 1.5% to 2.0% || German IFO Nov survey: More firms find credit conditions more restrictive from Oct || German Fin Min stated that the 2009 deficit lower than expected || France Econ Min: Need to take action to allow credit for small and med-sized businesses
- Currencies: The week began with the USD again on the defensive as the Dubai contagion fears dissipating on the weekend. The JPY initially firmed against the major pairs ahead of the European morning after BoJ Gov Shirakawa stated that the central bank was prohibited by law from buying foreign currency denominated bonds to influence currency rate. However, the JPY saw its gains evaporate after Strategy Min Kan stated that the Government and the BOJ have agreed on measure to curb the yen appreciation. But other Japanese officials cloud the verbal intervention front. The USD/JPY price action was a touch volatile as it reacted to the various comments from Japanese officials. The USD/JPY pair moved from 86.00 to test 86.60 in the immediate aftermath of Kan's comments that the Gov't and BOJ reached an agreement to halt the Yen appreciation. Yet the pair has been unable to move out its trading ranged established late last week between the 85 and 87 handle. The EUR/USD was back above the 1.50 level while USD/CHF re-visited the parity point. Overall the dollar maintaining its recent 48 hour price ranges but price actions has been choppy nonetheless. Dealers did take notice of the one-year risk reversal in the EUR/USD pair and debated the meaning and historical accuracy of the extreme reading of puts bids above calls. || The CNY registered its smallest MoM movement against the USD since the July 2005 currency refirm.
- Fixed Income: Skepticism and uncertainty over developments in Dubai is still lingering with investors in Europe effectively ignoring the strong rebound for risk that took place in Asia. The markets is waiting with bated breath for promised further details following the suspension of trading in three listed Sukuk's of Dubai World's Nahkeel unit and while Asian and European equities read the session differently the Dubai Bourse ended -7.3% and Abu Dhabi -8.3% for its worst daily performance on record. Asset re-allocation out of stocks and into government bonds led to a strong performance for Bunds and Gilts while Treasuries are broadly unchanged in the overnight session. With financials still under pressure in the FTSE short dated Gilts are outperforming sending the yield curve steeper. Data in the session has been mixed with the worst reading in UK consumer credit since records began in 1993 offset by a 19 month high in Mortgage Approvals. Meanwhile, Euro-zone flash CPI posted its first positive reading since April. Curve flatteners have dominated in Germany and the 2yr Schatz yield is actually +0.5bps and holding above 1.25% as the market prepares for more details on the ECB's 12 month repo operation on Thursday. The Greek 10yr has tightened 6bps to Bunds +187bps after the WSJ reported that Greece's government is trying to sell at least 25B of bonds to Chinese banks ( in line with market chatter last week)
-In the papers: London Times article noted that Chinese to become world's biggest gold consumers as it vault ahead of India. The article that the forecast of record gold demand in China this year emerged at a weekend conference of the China Gold Association. Demand in 2008 was 395.6 tons, senior figures in the trade body said, but the total figure by the end of 2009 could be well over the 450-ton mark.
- Geo-political: Russia Foreign Minister expressed concerned over Iranian expansion of uranium enrichment program. (comments refer to the Nov 29th Iranian State news noted that the Iranian Govt approved plans to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants of approximate size of current Natanz facility
***Notes: - Markets optimistic Dubai World losses are contained. Asian markets were broadly higher. However Abu Dhabi exchange -8.3% on first day of trading following Dubai news. - Iran to build 10 new nuclear reactors for enriched uranium. - ECB's Trichet and EU members fails to move China on CNY currency - Headline roulette continues out of Japan regarding the JPY currency. - China poised to vault ahead of India as number one global gold consumer as investors scramble to defend wealth against inflation. - ShopperTrak: Black Friday total physical sales +0.6% to $10.7B - National Retail Federation: Around 195M consumers visited stores and Web sites from Thursday through Sunday period versus 172M y/y; avg spending $343 compared to $373 y/y
***Looking Ahead: - (SA) South Africa Q4 BER Consumer Confidence: 4e v 1 prior - (BE) Belgium Oct Budget Balance YTD: No est v -14.0B prior - (IR) Irish Oct House Prices Y/Y: No est v -13.1% prior - (HU) Hungary Nov PMI: No est v 48.2 prior - 7:00 (SA) South Africa Oct Trade Balance(ZAR): 0.6Be v 3.9B prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.0%e v -5.2% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -1.3%e v -2.2% prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.9%e v 10.2% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Oct Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.4%e v -0.5% prior; Raw Material Price Index M/M: 3.0%e v -1.1% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept GDP M/M: 0.4%e v -0.1% prior; Q3 GDP annualized: 1.0%e v -3.4% prior - 9:45 (US) Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager: 53.3e v 54.2 prior - 10:00 (US) Nov NAPM Milwaukee: No est v 50.0 prior - 10:30 (US) Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 0.0%e v -3.3% prior - 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Construction Activity: No est v -1.9% prior - 15:30 (MX) Mexico Oct Budget Balance YTD (MXN): No est v -122.1B prior - (CO) Colombia Oct Unemployment Rate: 12.5%e v 12.9% prior
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