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Monday November 30, 2009 - 11:25:45 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 30/11/200 Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 30,
The U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM)
will publish its monthly Manufacturing Index tomorrow (Dec 1).
The ISM index
is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries
throughout the 50 states, which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that
occurred in the previous month. The Index is considered a very important and
trusted economic measure.
An index value of below 50 usually indicates a
decrease in activity, and points to an economic recession, especially if the
trend continues over several months.
A value substantially above 50 likely
indicates a time of economic growth.
The ISM's leading quality has been
proven over time. During a recession, the ISM's bottom may precede the turning
point for the economic cycle by some months.
A higher than expected reading
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
last month's value of 55.70 to decrease slightly to 54.80.
with the latest announcements by world Central Banks on
The Euro broke the
resistance 1.4897 and reached the two suggested targets 1.4948 & 1.4985
successfully on Friday. And This morning it jumped even more, reaching 1.5082. A
return to these levels means that last weekâ€™s drop was limited, and is probably
over with what happened at the kick-off of this week. This seems to be what the
odds favor, especially if we take notice of where did Fridayâ€™s drop stop (as it
is shown on the chart): we stopped only pips above the rising trendline on the
4-hour chart, which is the line that protects the rising trend. Thus, the rising
trend did not suffer damage but with small portions only. We should pay
attention to the nearby support & resistance levels 1.5043 & 1.5082,
because breaking any of them is what is going to set the direction for the next
few hours. Breaking 1.5082 means that this rising move has more to offer, and
will target 1.5144 & 1.5200. Breaking 1.5043 would initiate a falling
correction that would typically target 1.4955-1.4924 and if broken
â€¢ 1.5043: intraday support.
a support area that contains both Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% for the
â€¢ 1.4867: important intraday support from last
â€¢ 1.5082: todayâ€™s high until the moment of
preparing this report, and a well known previous resistance.
resistance area from 2008.
â€¢ 1.5200: resistance area from
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance
86.40 & reached the first suggested target 87.01 with great accuracy
(Fridayâ€™s high was 87.00). Such an accurate stop at a Fibonacci resistance means
that we are still in a down road. We will take Fridayâ€™s high as resistance of
the day, especially that now itâ€™s not only a Fibonacci level but also a daily
high. Todayâ€™s resistance is 86.99 and staying below this level means more
downside activity. While breaking it would target short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at
87.50, which is an important resistance, and if broken, the Dollar will rise
towards the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.33. Short-term support
is at 86.16 and is provided by Fibonacci 38.2% and breaking it would mean a
continuation of the drop towards the eldest Fibonacci sister (61.8%) at 85.65
first. And since this is the last line of defense before last weekâ€™s bottom,
breaking it would lead to a test of the last 15 years low
â€¢ 86.16: Fibonacci 38.2% for the
â€¢ 85.65: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€¢ 86.99: Fibonacci 50%
â€¢ 87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term.
â€¢ 88.33: the bottom of
the supposed wedge formation.
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