Monday November 30, 2009 - 12:08:07 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 30-Nov-2009 - 1206 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0023/27...Resistance in 1.0050-75 region
R: 1.0050-75 / 1.0125-50 / 1.0180-0200
S: 0.9980 / 0.9930 / 0.9875-50
Swiss is trading in a narrow range of 0.9994-1.0032. As no significant move on either side was not seen during the day, our view continue to remain the same on the pair. on the upside Resistance is seen in 1.0050-75 region which we expect to hold in the US session as the broader picture continue to remain bearish. However, a strong break above 1.0075 might see a rise towards 1.0125-50. On the downside Support is seen in 0.9980-70 region. A strong break below this Support region might see further dip towards 0.9875-50 over the next few days.
GBP-USD @ 1.6474/79...Cable falters once again
R: 1.6545-54 / 1.6576 / 1.6658
S: 1.6442 / 1.6406
Cable has fallen during the day after news came in that the Dubai govt does not guarantee Dubai world debt. British banks are said to have large exposures to Dubai real estate and hence Pound is being seen as a major sufferer from a Dubai debt default. It is likely to be very volatile going forward. Any news from Dubai is going to be very sensitive. We avoid trading in this pair till some sanity and sanctity returns.
Till the time the range mentioned in the morning holds, we would think that it will continue to trade ranged. Only a break of this range would call for a revision of view. The range mentioned in the morning was 1.63-1.67 for the week. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6658 and 1.6406 respectively.
AUD-USD @ 0.9120/23...Support-turned-Resistance Trendline held
R: 0.9210 / 0.9250 / 0.9320
S: 0.9100-0.9080 / 0.8990 / 0.8900-0.8880
Aussie tested the Support-turned-Resistance Trendline mentioned earlier and has fallen from the day's high of 0.9194 during the day. Failure see a break above this Support-turned-Resistance is keeping up the chances of Trend reversal alive. If it continues to trade lower, a strong break below 0.9100 might pull it down towards 0.9050-30 in the US session today. Any sharp upmove is not looking likley and we expect the Support-turned-Trendline Resistance at 0.9210 continue to hold in the US session. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 0.9203.
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