Equity Traders Look for Higher Opening as Dubai Concerns Subside
equity markets are trading higher this morning as concerns over Dubai issues subside.
Traders are now downplaying the debt issues in Dubai and calling it a local issue.This is helping to weaken the Dollar and
increase demand for higher yielding assets.
issues aside, investors will be focusing on retail sales.Traders are monitoring last weekâ€™s Black
Friday sales to see if this will translate into higher stock prices.Todayâ€™s focus will be on internet retail
The December E-mini S&P 500 is still in an uptrend.Speculators gobbled up stocks on early
weakness on Friday.Based on the
short-term range of 1112.75 to 1077.75, 1095.00 to 1099.00 becomes an important
pivot area.Regaining this retracement
zone will be a strong indication of higher prices to follow.A failure in this zone will indicate that a
secondary lower top is forming.
Treasury futures are expected to trade lower as traders are
selling positions in December Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes that were
initiated when equity markets weakened last week.Look for this sell-off to continue throughout
the day as demand for safe assets will fall if equities rise and the Dollar
The U.S. Dollar is declining overnight as speculators are
downplaying the debt problems in Dubai.
Over the week-end, the United
Arab Emirates central bank said it â€śstands
behindâ€ť the countryâ€™s lenders.This
helped to ease concerns that the state owned Dubai World will default on its
debt.Traders now believe that this is a
local economic problem rather than one with global ramifications.With these assurances in place, speculators
are increasing their demand for higher yielding currencies.
Despite these assurances by the central bank, traders should
continue to watch how the Dubai
debt situation unfolds.The debt problem
has exposed the fragility of the world financial markets.Although there may be a short-term pick-up in
global demand for risk, upside momentum in foreign currencies may slow if
investors decide to be a little more defensive in their speculative plays.Traders may decide to adopt a â€śtrade not to
loseâ€ť mentality which could create volatile trading conditions as investors
will be quick to take profits following any appreciation.
Over the week-end, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rejected calls
for a stronger Yuan. European Central Bank members had traveled to China
hoping to convince Chinese officials to allow its currency to rise. Their
premise was that China
is distorting trade and limiting its own monetary policy options by keeping the
Yuan tied to the weakening U.S. Dollar.Wen said that keeping the Yuan stable is best for Chinaâ€™s economy.He also implied that a stable Yuan would be
beneficial for the global recovery.European officials feel that Chinaâ€™s currency policy is hurting
exports because it drives the Euro higher and that this policy is actually
detrimental to the Euro Zoneâ€™s economic recovery.
Dollar Index futures are trading lower overnight, but
holding above last weekâ€™s low at 74.27.The late session rally from the overnight low at 74.54 indicates that
traders are tentative about pressing this market further.
A rise in consumer prices is helping to boost the December
Euro overnight as well as a return of demand for higher yielding assets.The main trend is up with a new main bottom
at 1.4799.A trade through this price
turns the main trend down.1.5144 is a
new minor top.
The December British Pound is trading sideways
overnight.Pressure is coming from the
thought that the U.K.
economy will continue to weaken over the short-term.A recent GDP report shows that despite
additional stimulus, the economy is not as robust as previously forecast.Technically, the main range is 1.5702 to 1.6876.The 50% price at 1.6289 held last week after
a sharp sell-off.Additional support is
coming from a pair of main bottoms at 1.6258 and 1.6245.
The December Japanese Yen hit a 15-year high last week at
1.1790.The current short-term
retracement is normal because of overbought conditions.Continue to look for sideways to higher
trading unless this market falls back below the old bottom at 1.1368.Speculators are also a little confused as to
whether the Japanese government will intervene.It is well-known that they are concerned about the detrimental effect a
rise in the Yen has on exports, but traders arenâ€™t sure if the BoJ will
intervene to pressure the Yen.Japanese
Finance Minister Fujii said over the week-end that the government wonâ€™t act to
curb the Yenâ€™s gains, but later denied the comment.No one is sure what the government has in
mind.This could produce volatile
The recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment
of Traders Report shows that speculators are looking for the Swiss Franc to
rise.This new strategy could be based
on the thought that the Swiss economy will outperform the other European
nations.The December Swiss Franc has
been rising and is not likely to turn back down unless .9782 is violated.Last weekâ€™s intervention by the Swiss
National Bank helped trigger a top at 1.0090 and a closing price reversal
The December Canadian Dollar is in a downtrend, but
short-term range bound.Support is at
.9212.Resistance has formed at two main
tops at .9599 and .9570.Canadian Dollar
traders are waiting for signs from the equity and crude oil markets that demand
for risk is returning.If these two
markets continue to weaken, then look for the Canadian Dollar to break to the
February Gold is trading lower despite the weakness in the
Dollar.Last weekâ€™s sharp break may have
damaged the confidence in traders who thought gold was a safe investment during
times of economic turmoil.The main
trend is up, but weakness can develop on a trade under the retracement zone at
1149.70 to 1138.60.
The main trend turned down in March Silver.The lower-top, lower-bottom formation
indicates developing weakness.The chart
indicates that 17.57 to 17.24 is key support.Last weekâ€™s sell-off stopped at 17.72.A break under this support zone will trigger a further decline.
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