The U.S. Dollar tried to mount a comeback at the mid-session
but failed to sustain upside momentum and finished the day down but off the
low.The Dollar was down most of the day
and traders renewed interest in riskier assets on optimism that the Dubai World
credit issue would resolve itself. Investors seemed tentative to pound the
Dollar lower which could be an indication that problems are not over. Breaking
last weekâ€™s Dollar Index low at 74.27 will be an indication that global
investors consider this matter to be a local issue rather than a possible
Todayâ€™s better than expected Institute for Supply
Management-Chicago business index also helped hold the Dollar in check.
A rise in consumer prices helped boost the EUR USD overnight
but the inability to take out the recent high for the year at 1.5144 is helping
to generate new selling pressure.The
main trend will turn down when 1.4801 is penetrated.The return of an appetite for risk driven
market will help the Euro maintain its upside momentum.
The GBP USD was the first currency pair to turn lower this
morning after the British Pound failed to hold onto earlier gains. Pressure came
from a report showing that U.K.
consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened and a general feeling that the U.K. economy
will continue to weaken over the short-term despite massive amounts of stimulus
being pumped into the financial system. More selling pressure could hit this
market if last weekâ€™s bottom at 1.6292 violated.Watch for a hard acceleration down if the
pair of main bottoms at 1.6261 and 1.6250 fail to hold.
Last week the USD JPY hit a 14-year low last week at
84.83.Todayâ€™s action looked as if
traders are adjusting to oversold conditions.The fundamentals still call for a stronger Yen as the U.S. economy is continuing to show
signs of weakness. Continue to look for sideways to lower trading unless this
market regains the old bottom at 87.99.
Speculators are also a little confused as to whether the
Japanese government will intervene.It
is well-known that they are concerned about the detrimental effect a rise in
the Yen has on exports, but traders arenâ€™t sure if the BoJ will intervene to
pressure the Yen.Japanese Finance
Minister Fujii said over the week-end that the government wonâ€™t act to curb the
Yenâ€™s gains, but later denied the comment. Shirakawa from the Bank of Japan
says itâ€™s up to the government to make the call.This indecision should create volatile
According to the recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Commitment of Traders Report, speculators increased bets that the Swiss Franc
will outperform its peers.Last week the
Swiss Franc rose to parity with the Dollar.The main trend in the USD CHF is down and the only thing that can stop
the decline is an intervention by the Swiss National Bank. Some say the SNB
acted on the Swiss Franc last week in order to prevent deflation.
The USD CAD is in an uptrend, but short-term range
bound.Resistance is at 1.0730.Support has formed at two main bottoms at
1.0449 and 1.0416.Equity and crude oil
markets will dictate the direction of this currency.The longer this market remains wound in a
tight range, the stronger the move will be once this range is broken. Because of its heavy reliance on outside
markets, this market could sit inside a range over the near-term until stocks
make a new high.
The failure of the equity markets to follow-through to the
upside helped the AUD USD erase some of its overnight gains.Renewed demand for higher risk assets gave
the Aussie a boost overnight and early in the New York session. The recent decoupling from
the equity markets during the recent stock market rally is an indication that
the selling is greater than the buying at current levels. The main trend is now
down and the current lower-top, lower-bottom formation indicates that selling
pressure is beginning to build.
Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its
benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.This may have helped give the market a boost today.Traders remain tentative about aggressively
buying this currency because of the possibility that this rate hike may be last
for several months. The activity out of Dubai
the past few days is raising some concerns about Australiaâ€™s exposure to emerging
The main trend is down in the NZD USD.The charts indicate that .6914 to .6744 is
the next potential downside target.Diminishing demand for higher risk assets could pressure this market
until the end of the year.Mondayâ€™s
sell-off from the high is an indication that shorts are looking for rallies to
sell. Like Australia, the New Zealand
economy may be facing heavy exposure to emerging market debt.This could pressure the economy if it proves
to be true.
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