The weaker U.S. Dollar failed to ignite the strong rally in
the equity markets that many investors had been counting on.Last week the equity markets sold off on news
that Dubai World was having problems meeting its debt obligations.On Friday, however, the stock markets posted
a strong recovery as bargain-hunters snapped up cheap stocks on the news that
situation was overblown.Today, many
investors expected a follow-through rally after Dubai World creditors said that
the situation was under control.In
addition, many stock traders believe that that the issue was a more local than
Throughout the day, the stock indices failed to attract
strong buying despite the weaker Dollar and mild demand for higher yielding
assets. This could be a sign that investors are content with this yearâ€™s gains
and fearful of adding additional risk to this yearâ€™s portfolio.
Watch for increased volatility the next few day as technical
factors indicate this market is ripe for some big moves. If a secondary lower
top has been formed in the indices, then look for a sharp break to the
December Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes turned around
after trading lower early in the trading session. Weaker equity markets caused
investors to take a look at safety at this time rather than return.The direction of the stock market should
dictate the movement in the fixed income market.
The U.S. Dollar tried to mount a comeback at the mid-session
but failed to sustain upside momentum and finished the day down but off the
low.The Dollar was down most of the day
and traders renewed interest in riskier assets on optimism that the Dubai World
credit issue would resolve itself. Investors seemed tentative to pound the
Dollar lower which could be an indication that problems are not over. Breaking
last weekâ€™s Dollar Index low at 74.27 will be an indication that global
investors consider this matter to be a local issue rather than a possible
Todayâ€™s better than expected Institute for Supply
Management-Chicago business index also helped hold the Dollar in check.
A rise in consumer prices helped boost the December Euro
overnight but the inability to take out the recent high for the year at 1.5144
is helping to generate new selling pressure.The main trend will turn down when 1.4801 is penetrated.The return of an appetite for risk driven
market will help the Euro maintain its upside momentum.
The December British Pound was the first currency pair to
turn lower this morning after the British Pound failed to hold onto earlier
gains. Pressure came from a report showing that U.K.
consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened and a general feeling that the U.K.
economy will continue to weaken over the short-term despite massive amounts of
stimulus being pumped into the financial system. More selling pressure could
hit this market if last weekâ€™s bottom at 1.6292 violated.Watch for a hard acceleration down if the
pair of main bottoms at 1.6261 and 1.6250 fail to hold.
February Gold see-sawed throughout the day as the Dollar has
moved both higher and lower. The lack of interest in the upside could be a sign
that investors are considering this market overbought at current levels.This could trigger the start of a substantial
profit-taking correction especially if the Dollar begins to mount a strong
comeback.March Silver turned the main
trend down last week.This divergence
from gold could be another sign that traders are taking price protection against
a big sell-off.
March Crude Oil held onto its gains but lower equity markets
and a flat Dollar helped to limit its upside movement.The weak economy should continue to keep
pressure on demand.The crude oil charts
also suggest that the way of least resistance is down because of the lower-top,
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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