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European Market Update: BOJ emergency decision underwhelms the currency markets; European data aids risk appetite; Gold hits fresh all-time highs on speculation that China might adds the metal to

Tuesday, December 01, 2009 6:13:30 AM

 European Market Update: BOJ emergency decision underwhelms the currency markets; European data aids risk appetite; Gold hits fresh all-time highs on speculation that China might adds the metal to its reserves

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- BOJ Emergency policy meeting leaves interest rates at 0.1%; To provide 10T in new 3-month lending facility and expand collateral
- (ID) Indonesia Nov Core Inflation Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.5%e
- (NO) Norway Q4 Consumer Confidence: 16.4 v 14.5e
- (SZ) Swiss Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.5%e
- (ID) Indonesia Total Trade Balance: $2.4B v $1.2Be
- (UK) UK Nov Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; House Price NSA Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.4%e
- (GE) Germany Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.9%e
- (GE) German Oct ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.6% prior; Adj Unemployed M/M: 3.25M, v 3.45M prior
- (IN) India Oct Trade Balance: -$8.8B v -$7.8B prior; Exports: -6.6% v -13.8% prior; Imports: -15.0% v -31.3% prior
- (SW) Sweden Nov Swedbank PMI Survey: 56.0 v 57.0e
- (IR) Irish NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 v 47.4 prior
- (TU) Turkey Nov Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 v 55.3 prior
- (PD) Polish Nov PMI Manufacturing: 52.4 v 48.8 prior; a 19 month high and first reading over 50 since Apr 2008
- (SP) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 v 46.3 prior
- (SZ) Swiss Nov SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 56.9 v 55.2e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 v 49.8 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 9.8% v 7.6%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 8.2% v 6.5%e
- (DE) Denmark Oct Retail Sales M/M: 1.1% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v -4.6% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov PMI Manufacturing: 50.1 v 50.0e; first reading over 50 since Feb 2008
- (FR) France Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 54.4 v 54.2e
- (GE) German Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 52.4v 52.0e
- (GE) German Nov Unemployment Change: -7K v 5Ke; Unemployment Rate SA: 8.1% v 8.1%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.2 v 51.0e
- (HU) Hungary Nov PMI: 47.5 v 48.2 prior
- (SA) South Africa Kagiso PMI: 50.3 v 49.0e
- (UK) UK Nov PMI Manufacturing: 51.8 v 54.0e
- (IT) Italy Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 7.8% prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Oct Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate: 9.8% v 9.8%e
- (DE) Danish Nov PMI: 46.1 v 48.5 prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: European markets have put in a strong morning session with all major bourses well bid and trading above the 1.5% mark to the positive side. Equity strength followed a positive session in Asia on the back of a afternoon recovery in NY, a historic third consecutive rate increase out of the RBA, Chinese manufacturing data and the scheduling of an 'emergency meeting' of the BOJ. Unlike Monday, the opening of Gulf markets to the downside failed to temper the global risk appetite and
Asia pulled off a positive close. Japan's BOJ new 3-month liquidity position furthered this view. Relieved Dubai related fears bid European financial names, specifically UK names with broad regional exposure. Apparent steps towards the conclusion of two French equity saga's encouraged trade in Vivendi [VIV.FR] as a pricing for its stake in NBC Universal was released and selection of Alstom [ALO.FR]/Schneider [SU.FR] emerged as the preferred bidder for Areva's [CEI.FR] T&D unit. In German trading, shares of K+S [SDF.GE] have moved sharply higher on continued speculation that Yara [YAR.NO] is considering a stake purchased, while MAN Ag [MAN.GE] has moved lower on rumor that it will be forced to make a offer for Scania [SCVB.SW]. Leading sector movers on the EuroStoxx50 included industrials, energy and financials. Trading volumes have recovered with both the FTSE100 and DAX30 trading ahead of their moving averages.

-In individual equities: Tui Travel [TT.UK] Reports FY09 Pretax 366M v 325Me, Rev 13.9B v 13.8Be. || Green King [GKN.UK] Reports H1 pretax 51.2M v 63Me, Rev 464.5M v 450Me; LFL +4.6%. || Vivendi [VIV.FR] GE Reached tentative pact to acquire Vivendi's stake in NBC Universal - CNBC. || Areva [CEI.FR] Agrees to enter exclusive talks with Alstom/Schneider on T&D unit. || Bayer [BAYN.GE] To launch Betaferon MS medication in
China by mid-2010. ||

- Speakers: BOJ Emergency policy meeting left interest rates at 0.1% and maintained monthly JGB purchases at 1.8T. The BOJ to provide 10T in new 3-month lending facility. The BOJ expanded the eligible collateral which would include Japanese government bonds, commercial paper and corporate bonds. || BoJ's Shirakawa stated that the actions are quantitative easing in a broad sense and stressed that it was not levered by government pressure. He noted that the operations must not increase JGB purchases in order to keep long term rates, or monetize government debt. Actions can affect currency markets if BoJ operations are clearly understood || Japan's Top Government Spokesman Hirano commented that the BoJ responded appropriately in its emergency meeting and in line with govt policies ||ECB's Papademos commented that Europe was making progress with regards to macro-prudential supervision. He noted that the central bank needed to distinguish between price and financial stability ||
Greece's PDMA head commented that he had no information regarding alleged 25B China bond sale which the WSJ reported back on Nov 29th. The PDMA noted that its 2009 debt issuance program was completed with 66B issued to date || Russian Central Bank's Ulyukayev commented that Dec inflation was seen at 0.5% v 0.4% prior; inflation could increase in second half of 2010. He noted that the CBR has the opportunity to continue with easing cycle of interest rates in coming quarters (note: CBR has lowered the refi rate nine time since April by a total of 400bps. The last rate cut was back on Nov 24th) || Russian Central Bank (CBR) also reiterated that it is considering small purchase of CAD currency for within its $383B of currency reserves. The central bank noted that a decision to be made in months || Germany's IFO's Sinn reiterated that a credit crunch was underway in inside the country and that credit conditions to worsen next year. IFO noted that such a credit crunch could threaten the budding economic recovery. Believes that the German govt should partially nationalize banks || Norway Central Bank (Norges) stated that Bank losses likely to increase in period ahead but added the Norwegian banks would not encounter a solvency crisis. Central Bank Gov Gjedrem expressed concern about housing market risks believes that Norwegian households might not be sufficiently braced for higher interest rates that could erode property prices. Consumers not taking into account that medium term interest rate could be much higher than current levels || Russian Economic Min: Revised 2010 GDP forecast to 3.1% from 1.6% prior view

- Currencies: The dollar continued to fall victim to rising risk appetite as various region of the world continued to present better economic data. Global equity markets were responding well to the overall effects of various data releases from around the globe and respective central bank comments. The reserve currency issue and its implications also was another factor for the higher metal prices and weaker dollar.
China's PMI was the initial data catalyst as it rose marginally in Nov and numerous European PMI manufacturing data basically followed suit. An emergency BOJ policy meeting pledged to add additional emergency credit and expanded its collateral base as a backstop to ensure its recovery. Swiss GDP showed that the country also emerged from its recession after four quarters of decline.
-The CHF was firmer against its major pairs (Even EUR/CHF) as dealers noted that the Swiss data outperformance and other factors might lead the SNB to step away from its intervention strategy and allow CHF currency to strengthen to counter recent forces in its economy. USD/CHF retesting parity as a result.
- The dealer were somewhat underwhelmed with BOJ outcome of its emergency meeting and the JPY retreated from its initial soft tone upon the announcement of special meeting during the Asian session. USD/JPY tested 87.50 just ahead of the European morning but moved back below to consolidate around the 86.90 for the bulk of the session. EUR/JPY holding up better as the European components providing additional support in JPY crosses.
- The GBP begin the session in negative territory on concerns over its sovereign debt status. A Morgan Stanley analyst note did not help the
Sterling sentiment with the analyst believing that Sterling could further depreciated around 10% on a trade-weighted basis over time.

-Commodities: Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs above $1,198/oz aided by weaker USD sentiment and the overall reserve issue that has dogged the currency for the bulk of the trading year. Continued press speculation that
China might be the next central bank to build its reserves with the metal. Dealers citing Chinese press article for additional momentum in gold citing the China Youth Daily. Article noted that China should increase gold reserves to reduce losses from a depreciating USD. The article recommend gold reserves be increased to 6,000 tons within 3-5 years and possibly 10,000 tons in 8 to 10 years. Over the last year this speculation has been growing. In November 2008 China's PBoC was considering raising its gold reserve by 4K ton. Back on Apr 23rd China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) noted that its Gold reserves 1,054 metric tons v 600 metric tons in 2003 as its Gold reserves rose by 454 Tons since 2003. Back in May PBoC's Hu noted that China had been buying gold in its domestic market over the past 5 years, but had only recently refined this up to a standard enough to count as a reserve and would keep markets informed of further increases. Hu stated that "we will continue to announce our gold reserve."

- Fixed Income: Risk markets in
Europe have reacted positively to less uncertainty surrounding Dubai world's restructuring and euro-zone perhiperal debt markets are no exception. The Greek 10y has firmed up over 10bps on the day to sit below Bunds+170bps, a reversal of some 30bps from the highs tested last Friday when sovereign related hysteria was at its peak. . The Greek outperformance is but into perspective by the performance of some of its rival fiscal basket cases - The Irish 10yr is about 3bps narrower on the session at 163.5bps while Italy is -4bps narrower on the session at 81bps, and even more so considering the country's debt chief effectively refused to comment on yesterday's press reports of 25B in sovereign debt purchases by China. A deluge of interesting data releases- including modest upward revisions to European manufacturing PMI's and better than expected German unemployment have further emboldened risk appetite further and on both sides of the channel yield curves are steeper thanks to more pronounced selling in the long end. The DMO sold 5B in 5yr Gilts with a bid-to-cover of 2.16, stronger than the prior, The auction tailed 0.4bps.

- Sovereign Issues: Fitch analyst comments on Japan and noted that the country's : Public finances are weak; Watching the country's medium term plan to address the situation || Greek PDMA Debt Chief: Had no information regarding alleged 25B China bond sale to aid in the country fiscal matters.

- In the Papers: Germany's Chancellor Merkel has been alarmed by the worsening credit crisis - London Telegraph || London Telegraph article noted that Morgan Stanley had raised the specter of a UK sovereign debt crisis. The firm's thesis being that the UK election would lead to a hung parliament and a UK's rising deficit. Analyst noted that in "extreme situation a fiscal crisis could lead to some domestic capital flight, severe pound weakness and a sell-off in UK government bonds. The Bank of England may feel forced to hike rates to shore up confidence in monetary policy and stabilize the currency, threatening the fragile economic recovery" and believed sterling may fall a further 10% in trade-weighted terms

***Notes:
- RBA hiked rates 25 basis points to 3.75%
- Morgan Stanley has raised the specter of a UK sovereign debt crisis
- European Manufacturing PMI registering growth for the most part
- Swiss GDP raises the specter that the SNB might move away from its currency intervention mantra
- German job data exceeds expectations
- Gold hits all-time highs near $1,200/oz on potential China reserve purchases

***Looking Ahead:
- (BE) Belgium Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.9% prior
- (RU) Russia Nov Reserve Fund: No est v $77.2B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $93.4B prior
- 7:00 (IR) Irish Nov Consumer Confidence: v 54.2 prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.7 prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales: No est v 0.0% prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Trade Balance: $600Me v $1.3B prior
- after 8am: Baltic Dry Bulk Index: No est v +2.0% prior (higher in 7 session)
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales: No est v 2.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 55.0e v 55.7 prior; Prices Paid: 65.0e v 65.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Pending Homes Sales M/M: -1.0%e v 6.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 19.8% prior
- 13:00 (IT) Italy Nov Budget balance: No est v -10.8B prior; Budget balance YTD: No est v -83.4B prior

 

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